Global needs for nitrogen fertilizer to improve wheat yield under climate change
Pierre Martre
(1)
,
Sibylle Dueri
(1)
,
Jose Rafael Guarin
(2, 3, 4, 5)
,
Frank Ewert
(6, 7)
,
Heidi Webber
(6, 8)
,
Daniel Calderini
(9)
,
Gemma Molero
(10)
,
Matthew Reynolds
(11)
,
Daniel Miralles
(12, 13, 14)
,
Guillermo Garcia
(12, 13, 14)
,
Hamish Brown
(15)
,
Mike George
(15)
,
Rob Craigie
(15)
,
Jean-Pierre Cohan
(16)
,
Jean-Charles Deswarte
(17)
,
Gustavo Slafer
(18, 19)
,
Francesco Giunta
(20)
,
Davide Cammarano
(21)
,
Roberto Ferrise
(22)
,
Thomas Gaiser
(23)
,
Yujing Gao
(2)
,
Zvi Hochman
(24, 25)
,
Gerrit Hoogenboom
(2)
,
Leslie Hunt
(26)
,
Kurt Kersebaum
(6, 27, 28)
,
Claas Nendel
(28, 6, 29)
,
Gloria Padovan
(30)
,
Alex Ruane
(5)
,
Amit Kumar Srivastava
(6, 23)
,
Tommaso Stella
(6)
,
Iwan Supit
(31)
,
Peter Thorburn
(32)
,
Enli Wang
(32)
,
Joost Wolf
(31)
,
Chuang Zhao
(33)
,
Zhigan Zhao
(33, 32)
,
Senthold Asseng
(34)
1
LEPSE -
Écophysiologie des Plantes sous Stress environnementaux
2 UF - University of Florida [Gainesville]
3 CCSR - Center for Climate Systems Research [New York]
4 Columbia University [New York]
5 GISS - NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
6 ZALF - Leibniz-Zentrum für Agrarlandschaftsforschung = Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research
7 INRES - Institut für Nutzpflanzenwissenschaften und Ressourcenschutz
8 BTU - Brandenburg University of Technology [Cottbus – Senftenberg]
9 Universidad Austral de Chile
10 KWS Momont SAS
11 CIMMYT - International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center
12 Universitad de Buenos Aires = University of Buenos Aires [Argentina]
13 CONICET - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas [Buenos Aires]
14 IFEVA - Instituto de Investigaciones Fisiologicas y Ecologicas Vinculadas a la Agricultura
15 Plant & Food Research - The New Zealand Institute for Plant & Food Research Limited [Auckland]
16 ARVALIS - Institut du végétal [Paris]
17 ARVALIS - Institut du Végétal [Boigneville]
18 Universitat de Lleida
19 ICREA - Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats = Catalan Institution for Research and Advanced Studies
20 UNISS - Università degli Studi di Sassari = University of Sassari [Sassari]
21 Aarhus University [Aarhus]
22 DAGRI - Department of Agriculture, Food, Environment and Forestry
23 INRES - Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation [Bonn]
24 CSIRO Atmospheric Research
25 University of Melbourne
26 University of Guelph
27 Georg-August-University = Georg-August-Universität Göttingen
28 University of Potsdam = Universität Potsdam
29 CAS - Czech Academy of Sciences [Prague]
30 UniFI - Università degli Studi di Firenze = University of Florence = Université de Florence
31 WUR - Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen]
32 CSIRO - Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Australia]
33 CAU - China Agricultural University
34 TUM - Technische Universität Munchen - Technical University Munich - Université Technique de Munich
2 UF - University of Florida [Gainesville]
3 CCSR - Center for Climate Systems Research [New York]
4 Columbia University [New York]
5 GISS - NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
6 ZALF - Leibniz-Zentrum für Agrarlandschaftsforschung = Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research
7 INRES - Institut für Nutzpflanzenwissenschaften und Ressourcenschutz
8 BTU - Brandenburg University of Technology [Cottbus – Senftenberg]
9 Universidad Austral de Chile
10 KWS Momont SAS
11 CIMMYT - International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center
12 Universitad de Buenos Aires = University of Buenos Aires [Argentina]
13 CONICET - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas [Buenos Aires]
14 IFEVA - Instituto de Investigaciones Fisiologicas y Ecologicas Vinculadas a la Agricultura
15 Plant & Food Research - The New Zealand Institute for Plant & Food Research Limited [Auckland]
16 ARVALIS - Institut du végétal [Paris]
17 ARVALIS - Institut du Végétal [Boigneville]
18 Universitat de Lleida
19 ICREA - Institució Catalana de Recerca i Estudis Avançats = Catalan Institution for Research and Advanced Studies
20 UNISS - Università degli Studi di Sassari = University of Sassari [Sassari]
21 Aarhus University [Aarhus]
22 DAGRI - Department of Agriculture, Food, Environment and Forestry
23 INRES - Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation [Bonn]
24 CSIRO Atmospheric Research
25 University of Melbourne
26 University of Guelph
27 Georg-August-University = Georg-August-Universität Göttingen
28 University of Potsdam = Universität Potsdam
29 CAS - Czech Academy of Sciences [Prague]
30 UniFI - Università degli Studi di Firenze = University of Florence = Université de Florence
31 WUR - Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen]
32 CSIRO - Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Australia]
33 CAU - China Agricultural University
34 TUM - Technische Universität Munchen - Technical University Munich - Université Technique de Munich
Pierre Martre
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 183362
- IdHAL : pierre-martre
- ORCID : 0000-0002-7419-6558
- IdRef : 163589194
Sibylle Dueri
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 1179328
- ORCID : 0000-0001-9005-6136
Daniel Calderini
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 1409505
- ORCID : 0000-0001-7873-5101
Matthew Reynolds
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 1154585
- ORCID : 0000-0002-4291-4316
Guillermo Garcia
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 1277711
- ORCID : 0000-0001-7690-4100
Davide Cammarano
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 1154518
- ORCID : 0000-0003-0918-550X
Roberto Ferrise
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 1154520
- ORCID : 0000-0001-8236-7823
Thomas Gaiser
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 1215367
- ORCID : 0000-0002-5820-2364
Gerrit Hoogenboom
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 784208
- ORCID : 0000-0002-1555-0537
Alex Ruane
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 805501
- ORCID : 0000-0002-5582-9217
Tommaso Stella
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 777214
- ORCID : 0000-0002-3018-6585
Iwan Supit
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 1277718
- ORCID : 0000-0002-8031-5162
Enli Wang
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 1281838
- ORCID : 0000-0002-6653-5791
Chuang Zhao
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 1217292
- ORCID : 0000-0002-9535-8181
Zhigan Zhao
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 1154529
- ORCID : 0000-0003-1533-7215
Senthold Asseng
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 1154513
- ORCID : 0000-0002-7583-3811
Résumé
ncreasing global food demand will require more food production1 without further exceeding the planetary boundaries2 while simultaneously adapting to climate change3. We used an ensemble of wheat simulation models with improved sink and source traits from the highest-yielding wheat genotypes4 to quantify potential yield gains and associated nitrogen requirements. This was explored for current and climate change scenarios across representative sites of major world wheat producing regions. The improved sink and source traits increased yield by 16% with current nitrogen fertilizer applications under both current climate and mid-century climate change scenarios. To achieve the full yield potential-a 52% increase in global average yield under a mid-century high warming climate scenario (RCP8.5), fertilizer use would need to increase fourfold over current use, which would unavoidably lead to higher environmental impacts from wheat production. Our results show the need to improve soil nitrogen availability and nitrogen use efficiency, along with yield potential.
Martre et al. found that to achieve the full yield potential of improved wheat varieties, nitrogen fertilizer use would need to increase fourfold over current use, which would unavoidably increase the environmental impacts of wheat production.