Managing climate-change refugia to prevent extinctions - INRAE - Institut national de recherche pour l’agriculture, l’alimentation et l’environnement
Article Dans Une Revue Trends in Ecology & Evolution Année : 2024

Managing climate-change refugia to prevent extinctions

Résumé

Earth is facing simultaneous biodiversity and climate crises. Climate-change refugiaareas that are relatively buffered from climate changecan help address both of these problems by maintaining biodiversity components when the surrounding landscape no longer can. However, this capacity to support biodiversity is often vulnerable to severe climate change and other stressors. Thus, management actions need to consider the complex and multidimensional nature of refugia. We outline an approach to understand refugia-promoting processes and to evaluate refugial capacity to determine suitable management actions. Our framework applies climate-change refugia as tools to facilitate resistance in modern conservation planning. Such refugia-focused management can reduce extinctions and maintain biodiversity under climate change.
Refugia as safe havens

Earth is heading toward a sixth mass extinction event [1]. While the current extinction crisis (see Glossary) is driven mainly by land-use change, overharvesting, and biological invasions, climate change is becoming a major contributor to extinction and is exacerbating existing drivers [2,3]. Extinctions can cause cascading effects that alter ecosystem structure and functioning [1,4].

Climate change impacts are increasing in severity, and reversal is becoming unlikely, driving a paradigm shift in landscape conservation toward promoting climate-change resistance in low-vulnerability areas and facilitating inevitable transitions in more vulnerable areas [5,6]. In this context, climate-change refugia are seen as climate-resistant bastions [7-9] that remain relatively buffered from the effects of climate change. They constitute areas that biodiversity can retreat to and persist in [10,11], thereby facilitating persistence during periods of climate change [12,13]. As such, climate-change refugia are potential 'safe havens' for maintaining biodiversity under anthropogenic climate change and for abating the unfolding extinction crisis [8,14,15]. However, refugia must be integrated with other management considerations [7,10] and may have limits to how much climate change they can buffer [8,9,12,16,17]. Thus, it is important to understand the factors and processes that affect refugia function and quality and to prioritize areas for conservation that are likely to persist for longer time periods [15,17,18].

Here we first develop a conceptual model of the biological and physical factors that affect climate-change refugia. We then build on the concept of refugial capacity to illustrate how it can assist in identifying the most buffered and most persistent (i.e., long-term) safe havens for biodiversity. We highlight how managing climate-change refugia as complex and dynamic systems that are affected by global change is key to conserving them. Finally, we integrate these considerations into a conceptual framework of refugia-focused management that extends to the restoration of urban and degraded habitats.

Highlights

Climate-change refugia can support biodiversity by maintaining buffered conditions despite climate change and are a critical tool for the unfolding extinction crisis.

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hal-04719494 , version 1 (03-10-2024)

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Gunnar Keppel, Diana Stralberg, Toni Lyn Morelli, Zoltán Bátori. Managing climate-change refugia to prevent extinctions. Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 2024, 39, pp.800 - 808. ⟨10.1016/j.tree.2024.05.002⟩. ⟨hal-04719494⟩
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