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Synthèse de modèles régionaux d'estimation de crue utilisés en France et au Québec

Abstract : Design flood estimatrs at ungauged sites or at gauges dites with short records can be obtained through regionalization techniques. Various methods have been employed in different parts of the world for the regional analysis of extreme hydrological events. A research seminar dealing with " regional estimation methods in hydrology " took place in Lyon during the month of May 1997, and brought together various researchers and practitioners mainly from France and the Province of Quebec (Canada). The present paper is based on the conferences and discussions that took place during this seminar and aims to review, classify, comparatively evaluate, and potentially propose improvements to the most prominent regionalization techniques utilized in France and Quebec.. Regionalization approaches adopted in France include the Gradex method which represents a simplified rainfall-runoff model which provides estimates of flood magnitudes of given probabilities and is based on rainfall data which often cover longer periods and are more reliable than flow data. In Quebec (and generally in North America), regional flood frequency analysis involves usually two steps : delineation of homogeneous regions, and regional estimation. In the first step, the focus is on identifying and regrouping sites which seem sufficiently homogeneous or sufficiently similar to the target ungauged site to provide a basis for information transfer. The second step of the analysis consists in inferring flood information (such as quantiles) at the target site using data from the stations identified in the first step of the analysis. The results of this work indicate that the philosophies of regionalization and the methods utilized in France and Quebec are complementary to each other and are based on different needs and outlooks. While the approaches followed in France are characterized by strong conceptual and geographic aspects with an emphasis on the utilization of information related to other phenomena (such as precipitations), the approaches adopted in Quebec rely on the strength of their statistical and stochastic components and usually condense the spatial and temporal information to a realistic functional form. The conclusions of the seminar point to the large potential of improvements in regional estimation methods, which may result from an enhanced exchange between scientists from both sides.
Mots-clés : CEMAGREF HHLY URI QDF FRANCE CANADA
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  • HAL Id : hal-02578763, version 1
  • IRSTEA : PUB00007611

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T.B. Ouarda, M. Lang, B. Bobée, Jean Bernier, P. Bois. Synthèse de modèles régionaux d'estimation de crue utilisés en France et au Québec. Journal of Water Science / Revue des Sciences de l'Eau, Lavoisier (Hermes Science Publications), 1999, pp.155-182. ⟨hal-02578763⟩

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