Precipitation forecasting through an analog sorting technique: a comparative study - INRAE - Institut national de recherche pour l’agriculture, l’alimentation et l’environnement Access content directly
Journal Articles Advances in Geosciences Year : 2011

Precipitation forecasting through an analog sorting technique: a comparative study

Abstract

This study aims at comparing two quantitative precipitation forecasting techniques based on the meteorological analogy concept. Method A considers first a selection of analogous situations at synoptic scale. Second a subset of the most similar situations in terms of hygrometry is extracted. Method B extends method A by two innovative ways, which are restricting the search for analogues with temperature information instead of the common season criterion, and exploiting the information about vertical motion considering vertical velocity. Forecasts are evaluated in a perfect prognosis context and in operational conditions as well, by mean of verification measures (Continuous Ranked Probability Skill Score and scores computed from contingency tables). Results of the case study in France show that: (1) there is an increase in forecast skill when temperature and vertical velocity are included in the procedure, (2) it is possible to anticipate rainfall events up to one week ahead and (3) the introduction of new variables such as vertical velocity may be useless beyond few days ahead if the forecast of the weather model is not reliable.
Fichier principal
Vignette du fichier
pub00031477.pdf (1.46 Mo) Télécharger le fichier
Origin : Files produced by the author(s)
Loading...

Dates and versions

hal-02594842 , version 1 (15-05-2020)

Identifiers

Cite

A. Ben Daoud, Eric Sauquet, M. Lang, G. Bontron, Christiane Obled. Precipitation forecasting through an analog sorting technique: a comparative study. Advances in Geosciences, 2011, 29, pp.103-107. ⟨10.5194/adgeo-29-103-2011⟩. ⟨hal-02594842⟩
31 View
33 Download

Altmetric

Share

Gmail Facebook X LinkedIn More