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Suppression des quotas laitiers et contractualisation : une réflexion sur les stratégies productives par modélisation mathématique

Abstract : The measures decided by the "health check" of the CAP plan the abolition of milk quotas by 2015. In this context, this communication discusses the economic and productive implications of the implementation of a contract with two specific milk volumes for dairy producers. In order to do this, a bio-economic model is developed to measure the impact of the abolition of milk quotas on the dairy farmers’ behaviour. This model aims to maximize the farm's income, while taking into account a set of constraints: zootechnical, agronomic, structural, environmental and regulatory. The risk of price volatility of inputs and output is integrated in this model. It is applied to four types of dairy farms to reflect the diversity of production systems in western France. The results show that dairy farms have a high productive potential, but the increase in milk production strongly depends on the method of fixing price and on the demand response due to this greater amount of milk on the market. The milk produced in volume B also varies depending on the balance of relative prices of milk, cereals and meat.
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  • HAL Id : hal-02751138, version 1
  • PRODINRA : 41880

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Baptiste Lelyon, Vincent Chatellier, Karine Daniel. Suppression des quotas laitiers et contractualisation : une réflexion sur les stratégies productives par modélisation mathématique. 4. Journées de recherches en sciences sociales INRA SFER CIRAD, Dec 2010, Rennes, France. ⟨hal-02751138⟩

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