Accéder directement au contenu Accéder directement à la navigation
Rapport

Proposals from WP6 for revision of SEAMLESS-IF procedure in Prototype 2, D6.5.4.2, SEAMLESS integrated project, EU 6th Framework Programme

Abstract : In the introduction of this report a definition of SEAMLESS-IF compatible scenarios is proposed. It describes, firstly, the driving forces for the future that affect agriculture in a given area and their impacts on the systems' responses in terms of sustainability of agricultural systems and of sustainable development of this area. The driving forces of agriculture in a given area may be either internal or external: -External forces are hypothetical changes in the general conditions surrounding agriculture,which cannot be controlled by farmers and agricultural or environmental policy makers(climate, population growth, inflation, GDP growth...). Internal forces include: -The resources and strategies of farmers which describe the available technology at the farm gate. -The main policies that govern the interactions among farmers and between farmers and their socio-economic environment. Next the SEAMLESS-IF procedure to perform a policy integrated assessment is described in three distinct phases: - A pre-modeling phase (Phase 1), From user's problem to scenario parameters: during this phase multiple interactions between users (i.e. policy experts) and SEAMLESS experts (i.e. Integrative Modelers) will follow a guideline for the definition of scenarios compatible with the functionalities of SeamFrame. This guideline (not implemented in the GUI for Prototype 2) will lead the users and the SEAMLESS experts to describe expected (i.e. narrative)impacts corresponding to the pre-selected policy questions and systems. Using the outcomes of these interactions experts will determine quantitative scenario parameters which are consistent with the user's expectations and with the SeamFrame functionalities. Finally users will select indicators with the SeamFrame GUI and will describe their expectations in term of uncertainty analysis. This pre-modeling phase is described in 6 steps: 1. Problem description 2. Procedure for Institutional Compatibility Assessment (PICA) 3. Expected impacts description 4. Initial consistency control (assessment of the compatibility between the user's question and the possibilities of SEAMLESS-IF) 5. Selection of indicators for impact assessment with the SeamFrame GUI. 6. Definition of uncertainty analysis expectations from the users - A modeling phase (Phase 2), From scenario parameters to indicators values. This phase is conducted entirely by Integrative modelers with interactions with users restricted to clarifications. It corresponds to the implementation of the scenario parameters in and the run of SeamFrame. It will provide quantified indicators (i.e. indicator values) for each scenario defined during the first phase, using a set of pre-existing SEAMLESS models and other components (database, typologies, indicators) parameterized and linked by the SEAMLESS experts under the SeamFrame environment. In this part of the report the expected functionalities of SeamFrame with regards to the components are described in detail. That concerns: 1. Indicator calculator 2. Database Manager 3. Typologies editor 4. Model chain Manager 5. Scenario editor 6. Sensitivity analysis 7. Additional expertises - A post modeling phase (Phase 3), From indicators values to qualified and quantified impacts: during this phase iterative interactions between users and experts will allow to review impacts1 throughout Seam:PRES. Feedback workshops with the users, the experts and if necessary stakeholders groups can be held to improve the analysis of quantified impacts in perspective of the expected impacts. Based on the outcomes of these meetings small adjustments in the specification of drivers and linkages among models can be made and new model simulations can be carried out with the modeling framework. Lastly final lists of impacts for each scenario2 are selected in order to address the user's question and requirements in terms of policy assessment. These lists are composed of a combination of qualitative (from additional expertise) and of quantitative impacts(from phase 2 output) for each scenario. This post-modeling phase is described from 4 points of view: 1. Transparency of simulation process and results; 2. Seam:PRES; 3. PICA; 4. SEAMLESS-IF as an iterative procedure.
Type de document :
Rapport
Liste complète des métadonnées

https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-02589837
Déposant : Migration Irstea Publications <>
Soumis le : vendredi 15 mai 2020 - 13:48:20
Dernière modification le : vendredi 5 février 2021 - 03:57:33

Identifiants

  • HAL Id : hal-02589837, version 1
  • IRSTEA : PUB00022981

Citation

Olivier Therond, Marie Taverne, J. Wery, Etienne Josien, Hatem Belhouchette, et al.. Proposals from WP6 for revision of SEAMLESS-IF procedure in Prototype 2, D6.5.4.2, SEAMLESS integrated project, EU 6th Framework Programme. irstea. 2007, pp.58. ⟨hal-02589837⟩

Partager

Métriques

Consultations de la notice

16