Comparing the scores of hydrological ensemble forecasts issued by two different hydrological models
Comparaison de scores de prévisions hydrologiques d'ensemble émises par deux modèles hydrologiques différents
Résumé
A comparative analysis is conducted to assess the quality of streamflow forecasts issued by two different modeling conceptualizations of catchment response, both driven by the same weather ensemble prediction system (PEARP Météo-France). The two hydrological modeling approaches are the physically based and distributed hydrometeorological model SIM (Météo-France) and the lumped soil-moisture-accounting type rainfall-runoff model GRP (Cemagref). Discharges are simulated at 211 catchments in France over 17 months. Skill scores are computed for the first 2 days of forecast range. The results suggest good performance of both hydrological models and illustrate the benefit of streamflow data assimilation for ensemble short-term forecasting.