A Bayesian Analysis of Extreme Precipitation in Mediterranean France Using Non-Stationary GEV Models - INRAE - Institut national de recherche pour l’agriculture, l’alimentation et l’environnement Accéder directement au contenu
Communication Dans Un Congrès Année : 2011

A Bayesian Analysis of Extreme Precipitation in Mediterranean France Using Non-Stationary GEV Models

X. Sun
  • Fonction : Auteur
Benjamin Renard
M. Lang

Résumé

Extreme value theory becomes increasingly important for hydrologists in order to assess the hazard related to extreme rainfall and ooding. The annual maximum daily precipitation at one site is often modelled with a GEV distribution[1]. The objective of the present study is to describe the extreme rainfall in French Mediterranean region with dierent covariate models[2]. 92 precipitation gauges within this region are utilized. Based on dierent covariates (like time, weather type and climate indices) and regression models (e.g. linearity on location parameter, scale parameter or both), several non-stationary GEV models are constructed. The Bayesian approach and the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods are used to infer the posterior parameter distributions[1], to assess uncertainties and to examine the performance of dierent probability models. Moreover, the predictive distributions are computed to make predictions on future observations. Due to the limited information content of at-site data, the identication of at-site non-stationary models becomes challenging. The construction of a general modelling framework for regional non-stationary models will thus be discussed.

Mots clés

Fichier non déposé

Dates et versions

hal-02595594 , version 1 (15-05-2020)

Identifiants

Citer

X. Sun, Benjamin Renard, M. Lang. A Bayesian Analysis of Extreme Precipitation in Mediterranean France Using Non-Stationary GEV Models. Extreme Value Analysis: Probabilistic and Statistical Models and their Applications, Jun 2011, Lyon, France. pp.36. ⟨hal-02595594⟩

Collections

IRSTEA INRAE
10 Consultations
0 Téléchargements

Partager

Gmail Facebook X LinkedIn More