HEPS challenges the wisdom of the crowds: the PEAK-Box Game. Try it yourself!
Résumé
Following a recent tradition, this year a game will also be played during the session on “Ensemble hydrometeorological forecasting”. During this presentation, the crowd attending the session will be asked to estimate the outcome of a probabilistic prediction system and to perform better than the Peak-Box approach. The “Peak-Box” is a novel visual support that can be communicated alongside with ensemble discharge forecasts (Zappa et al., 2013). This visual solution should provide support in the assessment of actions relying on accurate estimation of peak-timings and peak-flows. Results will be presented and discussed together with the participants of the session. Furthermore a blog post will appear later on www.hepex.org.