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Communication Dans Un Congrès Année : 2015

Assessing the skill of seasonal precipitation and streamflow forecasts in sixteen French catchments

Résumé

The objective of the study is to assess the skill of seasonal precipitation and streamflow forecasts in France. First, we evaluated the skill of ECMWF SYS4 seasonal precipitation forecasts for streamflow forecasting in sixteen French catchments. Daily flow forecasts were produced using raw seasonal precipitation forecasts as input to the GR6J hydrological model. Ensemble forecasts are issued every month with 15 or 51 members according to the month of the year and evaluated for up to 90 days ahead. In a second step, we applied eight variants of bias correction approaches to the precipitation forecasts prior to generating the flow forecasts. The approaches were based on the linear scaling and the distribution mapping methods. The skill of the ensemble forecasts was assessed in accuracy (MAE), reliability (PIT Diagram) and overall performance (CRPS).
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Dates et versions

hal-02601420 , version 1 (16-05-2020)

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Louise Crochemore, Maria-Helena Ramos, F. Pappenberger. Assessing the skill of seasonal precipitation and streamflow forecasts in sixteen French catchments. EGU General Assembly, Apr 2015, Vienne, Austria. pp.1. ⟨hal-02601420⟩

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