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Poster

Predicted climate change effects in a Mediterranean reservoir under different climate change scenarios and management options

Abstract : In the Mediterranean area, water is a scarce resource, especially in the summer season. Good management of the resource is thus essential, not only regarding quantitative aspects, but also regarding ecological and water quality. Climate change in the region is expected to result in an increase in air temperature that will affect water temperatures. Water temperature is an important variable in freshwater ecosystems. It can affect the biology of freshwater organisms in many ways; it can modify vital cycles, physiology, distribution areas, behaviour, etc. In addition, the vertical distribution of heat in a lake or reservoir determines its hydrodynamic behaviour and by extension water quality. The thermal and hydrodynamic behaviour of a reservoir depends on external driving factors (hydrology, meteorology) and internal characteristics of the water body (depth of the inlets and outlets, morphometry, reservoir management). Process-based hydrodynamic models allow investigating the effect of the alteration of these characteristics and are interesting tools to address the effects of climate change in Mediterranean reservoirs and testing possible adaptation actions. In this work, we used the model EOLE to simulate the hydrodynamic and thermal behaviour of the reservoir of Bimont (Provence region, France). To account for the hydrodynamic model uncertainty, we used two different calibrations: one based on expert judgement, and the other based on the method of Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation. To consider the effect of climate change on the reservoir we simulated the hydrodynamic behaviour of Bimont under the projections obtained during the project CORDEX of three different regional climate models (RCMs) for each of the two emission scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The projections used were those issued by the models HIRHAM5 and RACMO22, applied to the output of the GCM ICHEC-EC-EARTH; and by the model RCA4, applied to the output of the GCMs ICHEC-EC-EARTH, CNRM-CERFACS-CNRM-CM5 and MOHC-HadGEM2-ES. We considered two time horizons: medium term (2036-2065) and long term (2066-2095). We also considered different management options to see which the potentialities of adaptation to climate change are by varying water level, the temporal distribution and quantity of flow through the reservoir, and the outlet depth. Water temperatures in the reservoir of Bimont are expected to increase during the present century, both in the epilimnion and the hypolimnion. The stratification period will likely become longer. The elevation of the water level results in similar surface water temperatures, and slightly lower hypolimnion temperatures. Some modifications of the reservoir management have potential effects that can be more important than those of climate change.
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Poster
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https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-02601491
Déposant : Migration Irstea Publications <>
Soumis le : samedi 16 mai 2020 - 06:46:16
Dernière modification le : vendredi 10 juillet 2020 - 10:14:07

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  • HAL Id : hal-02601491, version 1
  • IRSTEA : PUB00044608

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Citation

J. Prats, P.A. Danis. Predicted climate change effects in a Mediterranean reservoir under different climate change scenarios and management options. Our Common Future under Climate Change Conference, Jul 2015, Paris, pp.578-579, 2015. ⟨hal-02601491⟩

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