Optimal operation of the multireservoir system in the Seine river basin using deterministic and ensemble forecasts - INRAE - Institut national de recherche pour l’agriculture, l’alimentation et l’environnement Accéder directement au contenu
Article Dans Une Revue Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management Année : 2015

Optimal operation of the multireservoir system in the Seine river basin using deterministic and ensemble forecasts

Résumé

This article investigates the improvement of the operation of a four-reservoir system in the Seine River basin, France, by use of deterministic and ensemble weather forecasts and real-time control. In the current management, each reservoir is operated independently from the others and following prescribed rule-curves, designed to reduce floods and sustain low flows under the historical hydrological conditions. However, this management system is inefficient when inflows are significantly different from their seasonal average and may become even more inadequate to cope with the predicted increase in extreme events induced by climate change. In this work, a centralized real-time control system is developed to improve reservoirs operation by exploiting numerical weather forecasts that are becoming increasingly available. The proposed management system implements a well-established optimization technique, model predictive control (MPC), and its recently modified version that can incorporate uncertainties, tree-based model predictive control (TB-MPC), to account for deterministic and ensemble forecasts respectively. The management system is assessed by simulation over historical events and compared to the no-forecasts strategy based on rule-curves. Simulation results show that the proposed real-time control system largely outperforms the no-forecasts management strategy, and that explicitly considering forecast uncertainty through ensembles can compensate for the loss in performance due to forecast inaccuracy.

Mots clés

Dates et versions

hal-02601880 , version 1 (16-05-2020)

Identifiants

Citer

Andrea Ficchí, L. Raso, David Dorchies, F. Pianosi, Pierre-Olivier Malaterre, et al.. Optimal operation of the multireservoir system in the Seine river basin using deterministic and ensemble forecasts. Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management, 2015, pp.12. ⟨10.1061/(ASCE)WR.1943-5452.0000571⟩. ⟨hal-02601880⟩
46 Consultations
0 Téléchargements

Altmetric

Partager

Gmail Facebook X LinkedIn More