De l'utilisation de prévisions hydrologiques probabilistes pour la prise de décision - INRAE - Institut national de recherche pour l’agriculture, l’alimentation et l’environnement Accéder directement au contenu
Article Dans Une Revue Revista Brasileira de Recursos Hidricos Année : 2015

On the use of probabilistic hydrological forecasts for decision making

Sobre o uso de previsões hidrológicas probabilísticas para tomada de decisão

De l'utilisation de prévisions hydrologiques probabilistes pour la prise de décision

Résumé

Short and medium term hydrological forecasts are usually associated with large uncertainty, especially concerning the use of information from numerical weather forecasts. One way to consider this uncertainty in the forecasting and decision-making process is the use of probabilistic predictions, obtained as ensemble forecasts. Usually at these kinds of forecasts several possible future scenarios are generated in order to quantify the uncertainties in the process. Recent studies have shown promising benefits on using ensemble forecasts rather than deterministic ones. This paper proposes a complementary approach related to the topic. First a brief introduction to streamflow forecasts current use in Brazil is made, and discussed how ensemble forecasts could be taken in this context. Then we present results of a game held during the XX Brazilian Symposium on Water Resources in 2013 in the city of Bento Gonçalves (RS), which had the public participation at the event playing the whole of decision makers that uses forecast information, using and not using information from probabilistic forecasts. The game results showed, in general, that probabilistic forecasts led in most cases to better and more consistent decisions among multiple persons. We believe that this argument helps to motivate the development of more research and more operational ensemble forecasting systems in the Brazilian scenario.

Mots clés

Fichier non déposé

Dates et versions

hal-02602377 , version 1 (16-05-2020)

Identifiants

Citer

F. Fan, Maria-Helena Ramos, W. Collischonn. De l'utilisation de prévisions hydrologiques probabilistes pour la prise de décision. Revista Brasileira de Recursos Hidricos, 2015, 20 (4), pp.914-926. ⟨hal-02602377⟩

Collections

IRSTEA INRAE HYCAR
12 Consultations
0 Téléchargements

Partager

Gmail Facebook X LinkedIn More