Compensating the impact of climate change by 2050 : how many reservoirs would be needed in France ?
Combien de barrages faudrait-il construire en France d’ici 2050 pour compenser l’impact du changement climatique sur les ressources en eau ?
Résumé
This paper analyses climate change scenarios from the CNRM/CERFACS Global Circulation Model (CMIP5 projections, Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5), and their impact on streamflow for 844 French catchments. A water allocation model working under two schematic hypotheses (‘urban’ demand and ‘irrigation’ demand) allows converting streamflow evolution scenarios into water resources evolution scenarios. Then, the same water allocation model is used to find out the smallest possible water reservoir that would allow counter-balancing the effect of climate change and provide a possible adaptation strategy by guaranteeing an unchanged level of water resource.