Changing climate both increases and decreases European river floods
G. Blöschl
(1, 2)
,
J. Hall
(1, 2)
,
J. Parajka
(1)
,
R.A.P. Perdigão
(1)
,
B. Merz
(3)
,
B. Arheimer
(4)
,
G.T. Aronica
,
A. Bilibashi
(5)
,
O. Bonacci
(6)
,
M. Borga
(7)
,
I. Canjevac
(8)
,
A. Castellarin
(9)
,
G.B. Chirico
(10)
,
P. Claps
(1)
,
N. Frolova
(11)
,
L. Gorbachova
(12)
,
A. Gul
(13)
,
J. Hannaford
(14)
,
S. Harrigan
(15)
,
M. Kireeva
(11)
,
Andrea Annamaria
,
T.R. Kjeldsen
(16)
,
S. Kohnova
(17)
,
J.J. Koskela
(18)
,
O. Ledvinka
(19)
,
N. Macdonald
(20, 21)
,
M. Mavrova Guirguinova
(22)
,
L. Mediero
(23)
,
R. Merz
(24)
,
P. Molnar
(25)
,
Andrea Montanari
(9)
,
Craig Murphy
(26)
,
M. Osuch
(27)
,
V. Ovcharuk
(28)
,
I. Radevski
(29)
,
J.L. Salinas
(1)
,
Eric Sauquet
(30)
,
M. Sraj
(31)
,
J. Szolgay
(18)
,
A. Viglione
(1)
,
E. Volpi
(32)
,
D. Wilson
(33)
,
K. Zaimi
(34)
,
N. Zivkovic
(2)
,
D. Lun
(1)
,
M. Bohac
(19)
,
D. Ganora
(1)
1
INSTITUTE OF HYDRAULIC ENGINEERING AND WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT TECHNISCHE UNIVERSITAT WIEN AUT
2 FACULTY OF GEOGRAPHY UNIVERSITY OF BELGRADE SRB
3 DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENT LAND AND INFRASTRUCTURE ENGINEERING POLITECNICO DI TORINO TURIN ITA
4 HELMHOLTZ CENTRE POTSDAM GFZ GERMAN RESEARCH CENTRE FOR GEOSCIENCES POTSDAM DEU
5 DEPARTMENT OF ENGINEERING UNIVERSITY OF MESSINA ITA
6 CZECH HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE PRAGUE CZE
7 FACULTY OF CIVIL ENGINEERING ARCHITECTURE AND GEODESY SPLIT UNIVERSITY HRV
8 Unipd - Università degli Studi di Padova = University of Padua
9 University of Zagreb
10 UNIBO - Alma Mater Studiorum Università di Bologna = University of Bologna
11 University of Naples Federico II = Università degli studi di Napoli Federico II
12 DEPARTMENT OF LAND HYDROLOGY LOMONOSOV MOSCOW STATE UNIVERSITY MOSCOW RUS
13 UHMI - Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Institute
14 DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL ENGINEERING DOKUZ EYLUL UNIVERSITY IZMIR TUR
15 CENTRE FOR ECOLOGY AND HYDROLOGY WALLINGFORD GBR
16 FORECAST DEPARTMENT EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS READING GBR
17 University of Bath [Bath]
18 DEPARTMENT OF LAND AND WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT FACULTY OF CIVIL ENGINEERING SLOVAK UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY IN BRATISLAVA SVK
19 CSE CONTROL SYSTEMS ENGINEER RENEWABLE ENERGY SYSTEMS AND TECHNOLOGY TIRANA ALB
20 FINNISH ENVIRONMENT INSTITUTE HELSINKI FIN
21 DEPARTMENT OF GEOGRAPHY AND PLANNING UNIVERSITY OF LIVERPOOL GBR
22 INSTITUTE OF RISK AND UNCERTAINTY UNIVERSITY OF LIVERPOOL GBR
23 UNIVERSITY OF ARCHITECTURE CIVIL ENGINEERING AND GEODESY SOFIA BGR
24 DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL ENGINEERING HYDRAULIC ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT UNIVERSIDAD POLITECNICA DE MADRID ESP
25 DEPARTMENT FOR CATCHMENT HYDROLOGY HELMHOLTZ CENTRE FOR ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH HALLE DEU
26 ETH Zürich - Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology [Zürich]
27 IRISH CLIMATE ANALYSIS AND RESEARCH UNITS DEPARTMENT OF GEOGRAPHY MAYNOOTH UNIVERSITY IRL
28 DEPARTMENT OF HYDROLOGY AND HYDRODYNAMICS INSTITUTE OF GEOPHYSICS POLISH ACADEMY OF SCIENCES WARSAW POL
29 HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE ODESSA STATE ENVIRONMENTAL UNIVERSITY ODESSA UKR.
30 RiverLy - Fonctionnement des hydrosystèmes
31 University of Ljubljana
32 Department of Engineering [Roma]
33 NVE - Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate
34 INSTITUTE OF GEOSCIENCES ENERGY WATER AND ENVIRONMENT POLYTECHNIC UNIVERSITY OF TIRANA ALB
2 FACULTY OF GEOGRAPHY UNIVERSITY OF BELGRADE SRB
3 DEPARTMENT OF ENVIRONMENT LAND AND INFRASTRUCTURE ENGINEERING POLITECNICO DI TORINO TURIN ITA
4 HELMHOLTZ CENTRE POTSDAM GFZ GERMAN RESEARCH CENTRE FOR GEOSCIENCES POTSDAM DEU
5 DEPARTMENT OF ENGINEERING UNIVERSITY OF MESSINA ITA
6 CZECH HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE PRAGUE CZE
7 FACULTY OF CIVIL ENGINEERING ARCHITECTURE AND GEODESY SPLIT UNIVERSITY HRV
8 Unipd - Università degli Studi di Padova = University of Padua
9 University of Zagreb
10 UNIBO - Alma Mater Studiorum Università di Bologna = University of Bologna
11 University of Naples Federico II = Università degli studi di Napoli Federico II
12 DEPARTMENT OF LAND HYDROLOGY LOMONOSOV MOSCOW STATE UNIVERSITY MOSCOW RUS
13 UHMI - Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Institute
14 DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL ENGINEERING DOKUZ EYLUL UNIVERSITY IZMIR TUR
15 CENTRE FOR ECOLOGY AND HYDROLOGY WALLINGFORD GBR
16 FORECAST DEPARTMENT EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM-RANGE WEATHER FORECASTS READING GBR
17 University of Bath [Bath]
18 DEPARTMENT OF LAND AND WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT FACULTY OF CIVIL ENGINEERING SLOVAK UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY IN BRATISLAVA SVK
19 CSE CONTROL SYSTEMS ENGINEER RENEWABLE ENERGY SYSTEMS AND TECHNOLOGY TIRANA ALB
20 FINNISH ENVIRONMENT INSTITUTE HELSINKI FIN
21 DEPARTMENT OF GEOGRAPHY AND PLANNING UNIVERSITY OF LIVERPOOL GBR
22 INSTITUTE OF RISK AND UNCERTAINTY UNIVERSITY OF LIVERPOOL GBR
23 UNIVERSITY OF ARCHITECTURE CIVIL ENGINEERING AND GEODESY SOFIA BGR
24 DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL ENGINEERING HYDRAULIC ENERGY AND ENVIRONMENT UNIVERSIDAD POLITECNICA DE MADRID ESP
25 DEPARTMENT FOR CATCHMENT HYDROLOGY HELMHOLTZ CENTRE FOR ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH HALLE DEU
26 ETH Zürich - Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology [Zürich]
27 IRISH CLIMATE ANALYSIS AND RESEARCH UNITS DEPARTMENT OF GEOGRAPHY MAYNOOTH UNIVERSITY IRL
28 DEPARTMENT OF HYDROLOGY AND HYDRODYNAMICS INSTITUTE OF GEOPHYSICS POLISH ACADEMY OF SCIENCES WARSAW POL
29 HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL INSTITUTE ODESSA STATE ENVIRONMENTAL UNIVERSITY ODESSA UKR.
30 RiverLy - Fonctionnement des hydrosystèmes
31 University of Ljubljana
32 Department of Engineering [Roma]
33 NVE - Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate
34 INSTITUTE OF GEOSCIENCES ENERGY WATER AND ENVIRONMENT POLYTECHNIC UNIVERSITY OF TIRANA ALB
G.T. Aronica
- Fonction : Auteur
Andrea Annamaria
- Fonction : Auteur
Eric Sauquet
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 736207
- IdHAL : eric-sauquet
- ORCID : 0000-0001-9539-7730
- IdRef : 12087525X
Résumé
Climate change has led to concerns about increasing river floods resulting from the greater water-holding capacity of a warmer atmosphere. These concerns are reinforced by evidence of increasing economic losses associated with flooding in many parts of the world, including Europe. Any changes in river floods would have lasting implications for the design of flood protection measures and flood risk zoning. However, existing studies have been unable to identify a consistent continental-scale climatic-change signal in flood discharge observations in Europe, because of the limited spatial coverage and number of hydrometric stations. Here we demonstrate clear regional patterns of both increases and decreases in observed river flood discharges in the past five decades in Europe, which are manifestations of a changing climate. Our results-arising from the most complete database of European flooding so far-suggest that: increasing autumn and winter rainfall has resulted in increasing floods in northwestern Europe; decreasing precipitation and increasing evaporation have led to decreasing floods in medium and large catchments in southern Europe; and decreasing snow cover and snowmelt, resulting from warmer temperatures, have led to decreasing floods in eastern Europe. Regional flood discharge trends in Europe range from an increase of about 11 per cent per decade to a decrease of 23 per cent. Notwithstanding the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of the observational record, the flood changes identified here are broadly consistent with climate model projections for the next century, suggesting that climate-driven changes are already happening and supporting calls for the consideration of climate change in flood risk management.