Rising temperatures reduce global wheat production
S. Asseng
(1)
,
F. Ewert
(2)
,
Pierre Martres
(3)
,
R. P. Rotter
(4)
,
D. B. Lobell
(5)
,
D. Cammarano
(1)
,
B. A. Kimball
(6)
,
M. J. Ottman
(7)
,
G. W. Wall
(6)
,
J. W. White
(6)
,
M. P. Reynolds
(8)
,
P. D. Alderman
(8)
,
P. V. V. Prasad
(9)
,
P. K. Aggarwal
(10)
,
J. Anothai
(11)
,
B. Basso
(12, 13)
,
C. Biernath
(14)
,
A. J. Challinor
(15, 16)
,
Giacomo de Sanctis
(17)
,
J. Doltra
(18)
,
E. Fereres
(19, 20)
,
M. Garcia-Vila
(19, 20)
,
S. Gayler
(21)
,
G. Hoogenboom
(22)
,
L. A. Hunt
(23)
,
R. C. Izaurralde
(24, 25)
,
M. Jabloun
(26)
,
C. D. Jones
(24)
,
K. C. Kersebaum
(27)
,
A-K. Koehl
(16)
,
C. Müller
(28)
,
S. Naresh Kumar
(29)
,
C. Nendel
(30)
,
G. O'Leary
(31)
,
J.E. Olesen
(26)
,
T. Palosuo
(4)
,
E. Priesack
(14)
,
E. Eyshi Rezaei
(2)
,
A. C. Ruane
(32)
,
M. A. Semenov
(33)
,
I. Shcherbak
(34)
,
C. Stoöckle
(22)
,
P. Stratonovitch
(35)
,
T. Streck
(36)
,
I. Supit
(37)
,
F. Tao
(38, 4)
,
P. J. Thorburn
(39)
,
K. Waha
(28)
,
E. Wang
(39)
,
Daniel D. Wallach
(40)
,
I. Wolf
(37)
,
Z. Zhao
(39, 41)
,
Y. Zhu
(42)
1
UF|ABE -
Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering [Gainesville]
2 INRES - Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation [Bonn]
3 GDEC - Génétique Diversité et Ecophysiologie des Céréales
4 Plant Production Research
5 Stanford University
6 Agricultural Research Service / US Arid Land Agricultural Research Center
7 The School of Plant Sciences
8 CIMMYT - International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center
9 Department of Agronomy
10 CCAFS - CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security
11 WSU - Washington State University
12 Department of geological sciences
13 KBS - W. K. Kellogg Biological Station
14 Institute of Soil Ecology
15 CGIAR-ESSP Program on Climate Change,Agriculture and Food Security
16 University of Leeds
17 AGROCLIM - Agroclim
18 CIFA - Catabrian Agricultural Research and Training Center
19 Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)
20 Universidad de Córdoba = University of Córdoba [Córdoba]
21 WESS-Water and Earth System Science Competence Cluster
22 Biological Systems Engineering
23 Department of Plant Agriculture
24 Department of Geographical Sciences
25 Texas A&M University System
26 Department of Agroecology
27 Institute of Landscape System Analysis
28 PIK - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
29 CESCRA - Centre for Environment Science and Climate Resilient Agriculture
30 Institute of landscape systems analysis
31 Department of Environment and Primary Industries
32 GISS - NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
33 Computational and Systems Biology Department
34 Department of Geological Sciences
35 Computational and Systems Biology
36 Institute of Soil Science and Land Evaluation
37 Plant Production Systems and Earth System Science
38 IGSNRR - Institute of geographical sciences and natural resources research [CAS]
39 Agriculture Flagship
40 AGIR - AGroécologie, Innovations, teRritoires
41 Department of Agronomy and Biotechnology
42 NAU - Nanjing Agricultural University
2 INRES - Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation [Bonn]
3 GDEC - Génétique Diversité et Ecophysiologie des Céréales
4 Plant Production Research
5 Stanford University
6 Agricultural Research Service / US Arid Land Agricultural Research Center
7 The School of Plant Sciences
8 CIMMYT - International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center
9 Department of Agronomy
10 CCAFS - CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security
11 WSU - Washington State University
12 Department of geological sciences
13 KBS - W. K. Kellogg Biological Station
14 Institute of Soil Ecology
15 CGIAR-ESSP Program on Climate Change,Agriculture and Food Security
16 University of Leeds
17 AGROCLIM - Agroclim
18 CIFA - Catabrian Agricultural Research and Training Center
19 Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC)
20 Universidad de Córdoba = University of Córdoba [Córdoba]
21 WESS-Water and Earth System Science Competence Cluster
22 Biological Systems Engineering
23 Department of Plant Agriculture
24 Department of Geographical Sciences
25 Texas A&M University System
26 Department of Agroecology
27 Institute of Landscape System Analysis
28 PIK - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research
29 CESCRA - Centre for Environment Science and Climate Resilient Agriculture
30 Institute of landscape systems analysis
31 Department of Environment and Primary Industries
32 GISS - NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies
33 Computational and Systems Biology Department
34 Department of Geological Sciences
35 Computational and Systems Biology
36 Institute of Soil Science and Land Evaluation
37 Plant Production Systems and Earth System Science
38 IGSNRR - Institute of geographical sciences and natural resources research [CAS]
39 Agriculture Flagship
40 AGIR - AGroécologie, Innovations, teRritoires
41 Department of Agronomy and Biotechnology
42 NAU - Nanjing Agricultural University
Résumé
Crop models are essential tools for assessing the threat of climate change to local and global food production(1). Present models used to predict wheat grain yield are highly uncertain when simulating how crops respond to temperature(2). Here we systematically tested 30 different wheat crop models of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project against field experiments in which growing season mean temperatures ranged from 15 degrees C to 32 degrees C, including experiments with artificial heating. Many models simulated yields well, but were less accurate at higher temperatures. The model ensemble median was consistently more accurate in simulating the crop temperature response than any single model, regardless of the input information used. Extrapolating the model ensemble temperature response indicates that warming is already slowing yield gains at a majority of wheat-growing locations. Global wheat production is estimated to fall by 6% for each degrees C of further temperature increase and become more variable over space and time.