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Choc pétrolier externe et performance des marchés des céréales : le marché du mil au Niger

Abstract : This paper aims at testing the impact of the recent oil boom on the performance of grain markets in Niger. In this country transport costs constitute the bulk of trade costs so that the spike in fuel price may negatively affect trade thus leading to shortages and price tensions on local grain markets. Assuming that markets are spatially arbitrated, the price spread between two spatially separated markets is modelled as a non linear function of transaction costs. Compared to standard models, transaction costs and the speed of adjustment to long run equilibrium are allowed to vary with the fuel price. A threshold panel model is estimated on a sample of 66 market pairs covering the period January 1990-October 2008. Results show that the adjustment speed of prices reduces when fuel price increases. As a consequence the hypothesis of a slow down in grain trade following the oil boom cannot be rejected.
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Claudio Araujo, Catherine Araujo Bonjean, Johny Egg. Choc pétrolier externe et performance des marchés des céréales : le marché du mil au Niger. Revue d'Economie du Développement, De Boeck Supérieur, 2010, pp.47-70. ⟨10.3917/edd.241.0047⟩. ⟨hal-02664794⟩



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