The effect of branch scars on the initiation and occurrence of red heart in beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) was studied on 17 trees with red heartwood and 14 trees with no discoloured heartwood, all of which were selected from a 120-year-old high-forest stand in Germany. Logistic regression was used to predict the probability of red heart occurrence for a given tree. The model was based on individual probabilities derived from geometric relationships between scar and knot morphologies, and integrated the diameter at breast height. Using this model, 27 of 31 trees were correctly classified, and the two groups of trees were clearly distinguished by probabilities below 0.25 and above 0.85 (with one exception). Given the constitution of the model, only 17 of 616 scars were found to initiate red heart formation, and the parameters of mechanistic variables were strongly correlated. The results suggest specifying the relationship between scars, knots and red heart, and extending the scope of the model.