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Poster communications

Interactions of mean climate change and climate variability on food security extremes

Alex C. Ruane Sonali P Mcdermid Theodoros Mavromatis Nicholas Hudson Monica Morales John Simmons Prabodha Agalawatte Ashfaq Ahmad Shakeel Ahmad Laj R. Ahuja Saseendran S. Anapalli Jakarat Anothai Senthold Asseng Gianni Bellocchi 1 Dumont Benjamin Federico Bert Patrick Bertuzzi 2 Virendra S. Bhatia Marco Bindi Jody Biggs Ian Broad Byun-Wu Lee Davide Cammarano Ramiro Carretero Uran Chung Giacomo de Sanctis Stephanie Debats Thanda Dhliwayo Lyndon Estes Frank Ewert Liping Feng Roberto Ferrrise Thomas Gaiser Guillermo Garcia Francois Gastal 3 Sika Gbegbelegbe Vellingiri Geethalakshmi Edward Gérardeaux Richard Goldberg Brian Grant Edgardo Guevara Jonathan Hickman Holger Hoffmann Huanping Huang Jamshad Hussain Flavio Barbosa Justino Asha S. Karunaratne Katja Klumpp 1 Ann-Kristin Koehler Patrice K. Kouakou Soora Naresh Kumar Arunachalam Lakshmanan Mark Lieffering Xiaomao Lin Qunying Luo Shaoxiu Ma Graciela Magrin Fabio Marin Raphaël Martin 1 Yuji Masutomi Greg Mclean Santiago Meira Monoranjan Mohanty Andre Moore Marco Moriondo Stephen Narh Lamyaa Negm Miklos Nemenyi Simone Orlandini Francesca Orlando Isik Ozturk Zhiming Qi Ubaid Ur Rahman Johanna Ramarohetra Hélène Raynal Gabriel Rodriguez Susanne Rolinski Francoise Ruget 4 Vaishali Sharda Lu Shuo Ward Smith Val Snow Afshin Soltani K. Srinivas Benjamin Sultan Dillip Kumar Swain Fulu Tao Kindie Tesfaye Peter Thorburn Alex Topaj Maria I. Travasso Giacomo Trombi Eline Vanuytrecht Federico E. Viscarra Wajid Nasim Enli Wang Hong Wang Jing Wang Sha Wang Yingchun Wang Erandika Wijekoon Yang Xiaoguang Ban Ho Young Jin I. Yun Yahxia Zhao Zhigan Zhao Lareef Zubair
Abstract : The Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP) has conducted a common set of sensitivity tests on more than 1100 simulation sets representing different farm systems in more than 50 countries, with carbon dioxide, temperature, and precipitation change sensitivities gauged for ~20 crop species and ~20 crop models. Here we present an analysis of C3MP results indicating how mean climate changes are likely to affect variability and extreme events within future time periods. Recognizing that climate change will affect agricultural systems both through mean changes and through shifts in climate variability and associated extreme events, C3MP can elucidate several aspects of these changes. First, mean climate changes can affect yields across an entire time period. Second, extreme events (when they do occur) may be more sensitive to climate changes than a year with normal climate. Third, mean climate changes can alter the likelihood of climate extremes exceeding critical biophysical thresholds, leading to more food security extremes. Finally, shifts in climate variability can result in an increase or reduction of mean yield, as extreme climate events tend to have lower yield than years with normal climate.This presentation will demonstrate each of these effects and illustrate the potential implications for future food production and associated agricultural economies under climate change.
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Poster communications
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https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-02739629
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Submitted on : Tuesday, June 2, 2020 - 10:07:50 PM
Last modification on : Wednesday, July 7, 2021 - 12:02:03 PM

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  • HAL Id : hal-02739629, version 1
  • PRODINRA : 462592

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Alex C. Ruane, Sonali P Mcdermid, Theodoros Mavromatis, Nicholas Hudson, Monica Morales, et al.. Interactions of mean climate change and climate variability on food security extremes. International scientific conference Our under common climate future change, Jul 2015, Paris, France. 2015. ⟨hal-02739629⟩

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