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Évaluation de l’impact des activités humaines d’exploitation forestière et de loisir sur le risque de propagation du virus de la peste porcine africaine : première élicitation d’experts

Abstract : In Europe, the African swine fever (ASF) virus represents the most threatening transboundary infectious pathogen of domestic pigs and wild boars, with serious consequences for these populations and the economy. Since its detection in Belgium in September 2018, France has established containment measures, while questioning their impact on wild boar movements and the associated risk of spreading the ASF virus. To address this issue, Anses conducted the first known elicitation of experts on this subject. The relative importance of wild boar disturbance factors and the possible impact of human activities on wild boar movements were estimated using a deterministic approach followed by a stochastic one. The resulting weighted stochastic model was developed to capture the variability of a wide range of territorial conditions and the uncertainty associated with expert elicitation. A regression tree analysis was used to group activities according to the disturbance affecting wild boars. Changes to the wild boar environment and territory intrusion appear as the most disturbing factors to them. Consequently, related leisure and forestry activities should be of interest: thinning of parcels with machinery, logging (felling of large trees), skidding and mushroom or deer antler picking. The results of this experts’elicitation are particularly important for managers and stakeholders involved in the ASF crisis in Europe.
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Submitted on : Thursday, August 20, 2020 - 1:42:12 PM
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Petit Karine, Dunoyer Charlotte, Claude Fischer, Jean Hars, Eric Baubet, et al.. Évaluation de l’impact des activités humaines d’exploitation forestière et de loisir sur le risque de propagation du virus de la peste porcine africaine : première élicitation d’experts. Epidémiologie et Santé Animale, Association pour l'Etude de l'Epidémiologie des Maladies Animales (AEEMA), 2019, 76, pp.67-75. ⟨hal-02918367⟩

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