Can Continental Models Convey Useful Seasonal Hydrologic Information at the Catchment Scale?
Résumé
The development and availability of climate forecasting systems have allowed theimplementation of seasonal hydroclimatic services at the continental scale. User guidance and quality ofthe forecast information are key components to ensure user engagement and service uptake, yet forecastquality depends on the hydrologic model setup. Here, we address how seasonal forecasts from continentalservices can be used to address user needs at the catchment scale. We compare a continentally calibratedprocessbased model (EHYPE) and a catchmentspecic parsimonious model (GR6J) to forecast streamowin a set of French catchments. Results show that despite expected high performance from the catchmentsetup against observed streamow, the continental setup can, in some catchments, match or evenoutperform the catchmentspecic setup for 3month aggregations and threshold exceedance. Forecastsystems can become comparable when looking at statistics relative to model climatology, such as anomalies,and adequate initial conditions are the main source of skill in both systems. We highlight the need forconsistency in data used in modeling chains and in tailoring service outputs for use at the catchment scale.Finally, we show that the spread in internal model states varies largely between the two systems, reectingthe differences in their setups and calibration strategies, and highlighting that caution is needed beforeextracting hydrologic variables other than streamow. We overall argue that continental hydroclimaticservices show potential on addressing needs at the catchment scale, yet guidance is needed to extract, tailorand use the information provided
Domaines
Ingénierie de l'environnementOrigine | Fichiers éditeurs autorisés sur une archive ouverte |
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