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Can Continental Models Convey Useful Seasonal Hydrologic Information at the Catchment Scale?

Abstract : The development and availability of climate forecasting systems have allowed theimplementation of seasonal hydroclimatic services at the continental scale. User guidance and quality ofthe forecast information are key components to ensure user engagement and service uptake, yet forecastquality depends on the hydrologic model setup. Here, we address how seasonal forecasts from continentalservices can be used to address user needs at the catchment scale. We compare a continentally calibratedprocessbased model (EHYPE) and a catchmentspecic parsimonious model (GR6J) to forecast streamowin a set of French catchments. Results show that despite expected high performance from the catchmentsetup against observed streamow, the continental setup can, in some catchments, match or evenoutperform the catchmentspecic setup for 3month aggregations and threshold exceedance. Forecastsystems can become comparable when looking at statistics relative to model climatology, such as anomalies,and adequate initial conditions are the main source of skill in both systems. We highlight the need forconsistency in data used in modeling chains and in tailoring service outputs for use at the catchment scale.Finally, we show that the spread in internal model states varies largely between the two systems, reectingthe differences in their setups and calibration strategies, and highlighting that caution is needed beforeextracting hydrologic variables other than streamow. We overall argue that continental hydroclimaticservices show potential on addressing needs at the catchment scale, yet guidance is needed to extract, tailorand use the information provided
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https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-03170429
Contributor : Valérie Henri <>
Submitted on : Tuesday, March 16, 2021 - 10:58:47 AM
Last modification on : Thursday, May 27, 2021 - 5:44:01 PM

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Louise Crochemore, Maria-Helena Ramos, I. Pechlivanidis. Can Continental Models Convey Useful Seasonal Hydrologic Information at the Catchment Scale?. Water Resources Research, American Geophysical Union, 2020, 56 (2), ⟨10.1029/2019WR025700⟩. ⟨hal-03170429⟩

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