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Seasonal weather forecasts for crop yield modelling in Europe

Abstract : Within the European DEMETER project, ensembles of global coupled climate models have shown some skill forseasonal climate prediction. Meteorological outputs of the seasonal prediction system were used in a crop yield modelto assess the performance and usefulness of such a system for crop yield forecasting.An innovative method for supplying seasonal forecast information to crop simulation models was developed. Itconsisted in running a crop model from each individual downscaled member output of climate models. An ensembleof crop yield was obtained and a probability distribution function (PDF) was derived. Preliminary results of wheatyield simulations in Europe using downscaled DEMETER seasonal weather forecasts suggest that reliable crop yieldpredictions can be obtained using an ensemble multi-model approach. When compared to the operational system, forthe same level of accuracy, earlier crop forecasts are obtained with the DEMETER system. Furthermore, PDFs of wheatyield provide information on both the yield anomaly and the uncertainty of the forecast. Based on the spread of the PDF,the user can directly quantify the benefits and risk of taking weather-sensitive decisions.It is shown that the use of ensembles of seasonal weather forecast brings additional information for the crop yieldforecasts and therefore has valuable benefit for decision-making in the management of European Union agriculturalproduction.
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Contributor : Pierre Cantelaube <>
Submitted on : Monday, March 22, 2021 - 6:18:03 PM
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Pierre Cantelaube, Jean-Michel Terres. Seasonal weather forecasts for crop yield modelling in Europe. Tellus A, Co-Action Publishing, 2005, 57 (3), pp.476-487. ⟨10.3402/tellusa.v57i3.14669⟩. ⟨hal-03177000⟩



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