A global-scale expert assessment of drivers and risks associated with pollinator decline
Lynn Dicks
(1, 2)
,
Tom Breeze
(3)
,
Hien Ngo
(4)
,
Deepa Senapathi
(3)
,
Jiandong An
(5)
,
Marcelo Aizen
(6)
,
Parthiba Basu
(7)
,
Damayanti Buchori
(8, 9)
,
Leonardo Galetto
(10, 11)
,
Lucas Garibaldi
(12, 11)
,
Barbara Gemmill-Herren
(13)
,
Brad Howlett
(14)
,
Vera Imperatriz-Fonseca
(15)
,
Steven Johnson
(16)
,
Anikó Kovács-Hostyánszki
(17)
,
Yong Jung Kwon
(18)
,
H. Michael G. Lattorff
(19)
,
Thingreipi Lungharwo
(20)
,
Colleen Seymour
(21, 22)
,
A.J. Vanbergen
(23)
,
Simon Potts
(3)
1
CAM -
University of Cambridge [UK]
2 UEA - University of East Anglia [Norwich]
3 Centre for Agri-Environmental Research, School of Agriculture, Policy and Development, Reading University, Reading, UK
4 IPBES Secretariat, Bonn, Germany
5 Institute of Apicultural Research, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing, China
6 UNCOMA - Universidad Nacional del Comahue [Neuquén]
7 Department of Zoology, University of Calcutta, Kolkata, India
8 Center for Transdisciplinary and Sustainability Sciences, IPB University, Jalan Pajajaran, Indonesia
9 Department of Plant Protection, IPB University, Bogor, Indonesia
10 Facultad de Ciencias Exactas, Físicas y Naturales, Universidad de Córdoba, Córdoba, Argentina
11 CONICET - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas [Buenos Aires]
12 Instituto de Investigaciones en Recursos Naturales, Agroecología y Desarrollo Rural (IRNAD), Universidad Nacional de Río Negro, El Bolsón, Argentina
13 World Agroforestry Centre, Nairobi, Kenya
14 The New Zealand Institute for Plant & Food Research Limited, Lincoln, New Zealand
15 Biosciences Institute, University of Sao Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
16 Centre for Functional Biodiversity, School of Life Sciences, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg, South Africa
17 Institute of Ecology and Botany, Centre for Ecological Research, Vácrátót, Hungary
18 KNU - Kyungpook National University [Daegu]
19 ICIPE - International Centre of Insect Physiology and Ecology
20 Naga Women’s Union, Manipur, India
21 South African National Biodiversity Institute (SANBI), Kirstenbosch Research Centre, Claremont, South Africa
22 Department of Biological Sciences, FitzPatrick Institute, University of Cape Town, Rondebosch, South Africa
23 Agroécologie [Dijon]
2 UEA - University of East Anglia [Norwich]
3 Centre for Agri-Environmental Research, School of Agriculture, Policy and Development, Reading University, Reading, UK
4 IPBES Secretariat, Bonn, Germany
5 Institute of Apicultural Research, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing, China
6 UNCOMA - Universidad Nacional del Comahue [Neuquén]
7 Department of Zoology, University of Calcutta, Kolkata, India
8 Center for Transdisciplinary and Sustainability Sciences, IPB University, Jalan Pajajaran, Indonesia
9 Department of Plant Protection, IPB University, Bogor, Indonesia
10 Facultad de Ciencias Exactas, Físicas y Naturales, Universidad de Córdoba, Córdoba, Argentina
11 CONICET - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas [Buenos Aires]
12 Instituto de Investigaciones en Recursos Naturales, Agroecología y Desarrollo Rural (IRNAD), Universidad Nacional de Río Negro, El Bolsón, Argentina
13 World Agroforestry Centre, Nairobi, Kenya
14 The New Zealand Institute for Plant & Food Research Limited, Lincoln, New Zealand
15 Biosciences Institute, University of Sao Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
16 Centre for Functional Biodiversity, School of Life Sciences, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Pietermaritzburg, South Africa
17 Institute of Ecology and Botany, Centre for Ecological Research, Vácrátót, Hungary
18 KNU - Kyungpook National University [Daegu]
19 ICIPE - International Centre of Insect Physiology and Ecology
20 Naga Women’s Union, Manipur, India
21 South African National Biodiversity Institute (SANBI), Kirstenbosch Research Centre, Claremont, South Africa
22 Department of Biological Sciences, FitzPatrick Institute, University of Cape Town, Rondebosch, South Africa
23 Agroécologie [Dijon]
Lynn Dicks
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 777619
- ORCID : 0000-0002-8304-4468
Hien Ngo
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 793439
- ORCID : 0000-0003-3070-9988
Deepa Senapathi
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 775210
- ORCID : 0000-0002-8883-1583
Jiandong An
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 777218
- ORCID : 0000-0002-4203-4554
Marcelo Aizen
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 798332
- ORCID : 0000-0001-9079-9749
Parthiba Basu
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 806329
- ORCID : 0000-0002-8942-0161
Lucas Garibaldi
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 795000
- ORCID : 0000-0003-0725-4049
Vera Imperatriz-Fonseca
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 771714
- ORCID : 0000-0002-1079-2158
Steven Johnson
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 775526
- ORCID : 0000-0002-7877-3543
H. Michael G. Lattorff
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 784046
- ORCID : 0000-0002-8603-6332
A.J. Vanbergen
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 745678
- IdHAL : adam-vanbergen
- ORCID : 0000-0001-8320-5535
Simon Potts
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 801439
- ORCID : 0000-0002-2045-980X
Résumé
Pollinator decline has attracted global attention and substantial efforts are underway to respond through national pollinator strategies and action plans. These policy responses require clarity on what is driving pollinator decline and what risks it generates for society in different parts of the world. Using a formal expert elicitation process, we evaluated the relative regional and global importance of eight drivers of pollinator decline and ten consequent risks to human well-being. Our results indicate that global policy responses should focus on reducing pressure from changes in land cover and configuration, land management and pesticides, as these were considered very important drivers in most regions. We quantify how the importance of drivers and risks from pollinator decline, differ among regions. For example, losing access to managed pollinators was considered a serious risk only for people in North America, whereas yield instability in pollinator-dependent crops was classed as a serious or high risk in four regions but only a moderate risk in Europe and North America. Overall, perceived risks were substantially higher in the Global South. Despite extensive research on pollinator decline, our analysis reveals considerable scientific uncertainty about what this means for human society.