Anthropogenic intensification of short-duration rainfall extremes
Résumé
Short-duration (1 to 3 hour) rainfall extremes can cause serious damage to societies through rapidly developing (flash) flooding and are determined by complex, multifaceted processes that are altering as Earth's climate warms. In this Review, we examine evidence from observational, theoretical and modelling studies for their intensification, the drivers and the likely impacts on flash-flooding. Short-duration rainfall extremes are intensifying with warming at a rate consistent with atmospheric moisture increase (~7%/K) that also drives intensification of longer-duration extremes (1day+). Evidence from some regions indicates stronger increases to short-duration extreme rainfall intensities than expected from moisture increases alone. Idealized modelling studies suggest these stronger local increases are related to convective cloud feedbacks but their relevance to climate change is uncertain. Future extreme rainfall intensification is also modulated by changes to temperature stratification and large-scale atmospheric circulation. The latter remains a major source of uncertainty. Intensification of short-duration extremes has likely increased the incidence of flash flooding at local scales and this can further compound with an increased storm spatial footprint to significantly increase total event rainfall. These findings call for urgent climate-change adaptation measures to manage increasing flood risks.
Domaines
Sciences du Vivant [q-bio]
Fichier principal
2021_Fowler_Nature reviews earth&environment.pdf (13.02 Mo)
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