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Journal Articles Viruses Year : 2023

First expert elicitation of knowledge on possible drivers of observed increasing human cases of Tick-Borne Encephalitis in Europe

1 FARAH - Fundamental and Applied Research for Animals & Health
2 Université de Liège
3 SOURCE - SOUtenabilité et RésilenCE
4 VIRO - Virologie UMR1161
5 Queen Astrid Military Hospital [Brussels]
6 RIVM - National Institute for Public Health and the Environment [Bilthoven]
7 Retraité
8 ONIRIS - École nationale vétérinaire, agroalimentaire et de l'alimentation Nantes-Atlantique
9 BIPAR - Biologie moléculaire et immunologie parasitaires et fongiques
10 Écologie et Émergence des Pathogènes Transmis par les Arthropodes / Ecology and Emergence of Arthropod-borne Pathogens
11 DEPT SA - Département Santé Animale
12 Virulence bactérienne précoce : fonctions cellulaires et contrôle de l'infection aiguë et subaiguë
13 UNIBE - Universität Bern [Bern]
14 BIOEPAR - Biologie, Epidémiologie et analyse de risque en Santé Animale
15 LRFSN - Laboratoire de la rage et de la faune sauvage de Nancy
16 Department of Epidemiology, Regional Authority of Public Health in Banská Bystrica
17 Immuno-Rhumatologie Moléculaire
18 NIPH - Norwegian Institute of Public Health [Oslo]
19 UMR EPIA - Unité Mixte de Recherche d'Épidémiologie des maladies Animales et zoonotiques
20 LBBE - Laboratoire de Biométrie et Biologie Evolutive - UMR 5558
21 Competence Center Climate and Health, Austrian National Institute of Public Health
22 GÖG/ÖBIG (Gesundheit Österreich GmbH/Österreichisches Bundesinstitut für Gesundheitswesen)—Health Austria Ltd./Division of the Austrian Federal Institute for Health
23 National institute for health development Talinn
24 GU - University of Gothenburg
25 University of Ljubljana
26 BIOLOGY CENTRE CAS - Institute of Parasitology [České Budějovice]
27 MUNI - Masaryk University [Brno]
28 VRI - Veterinary Research Institute [Brno]
29 Lyme Center Apeldoorn, Gelre Hospital
30 Faculty of Health and Medical Sciences
31 Agroscope
32 LSAl - Laboratoire de sécurité des aliments de Maisons-Alfort
33 Sciensano [Bruxelles]
34 CHIV - Centre Hospitalier Intercommunal Villeneuve-Saint-Georges
35 Klinikum der Universitat Munchen
36 DER - Direction de l'Evaluation des Risques
37 IVB / CAS - Institute of Vertebrate Biology of the Czech Academy of Sciences
38 IREC - Catalonia Institute for Energy Research
39 University of Zaragoza - Universidad de Zaragoza [Zaragoza]
40 CNAM Bretagne - Centre d'enseignement Cnam Bretagne
41 UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology
42 ECDC - European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control [Stockholm, Sweden]
43 MUMC - Maastricht University Medical Centre
Marie-France Humblet
  • Function : Author
  • PersonId : 934122
Gaëlle Gonzalez
Aurélie Velay-Rusch
  • Function : Author
  • PersonId : 1119745
Thomas F. H. Berger
  • Function : Author
Sandrine Lacour


Tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) is a viral disease endemic in Eurasia. The virus is mainly transmitted to humans via ticks and occasionally via the consumption of unpasteurized milk products. The European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control reported an increase in TBE incidence over the past years in Europe as well as the emergence of the disease in new areas. To better understand this phenomenon, we investigated the drivers of TBE emergence and increase in incidence in humans through an expert knowledge elicitation. We listed 59 possible drivers grouped in eight domains and elicited forty European experts to: (i) allocate a score per driver, (ii) weight this score within each domain, and (iii) weight the different domains and attribute an uncertainty level per domain. An overall weighted score per driver was calculated, and drivers with comparable scores were grouped into three terminal nodes using a regression tree analysis. The drivers with the highest scores were: (i) changes in human behavior/activities; (ii) changes in eating habits or consumer demand; (iii) changes in the landscape; (iv) influence of humidity on the survival and transmission of the pathogen; (v) difficulty to control reservoir(s) and/or vector(s); (vi) influence of temperature on virus survival and transmission; (vii) number of wildlife compartments/groups acting as reservoirs or amplifying hosts; (viii) increase of autochthonous wild mammals; and (ix) number of tick species vectors and their distribution. Our results support researchers in prioritizing studies targeting the most relevant drivers of emergence and increasing TBE incidence.
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hal-04037581 , version 1 (20-03-2023)


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Claude Saegerman, Marie-France Humblet, Marc Leandri, Gaëlle Gonzalez, Paul Heyman, et al.. First expert elicitation of knowledge on possible drivers of observed increasing human cases of Tick-Borne Encephalitis in Europe. Viruses, 2023, 15 (3), pp.791. ⟨10.3390/v15030791⟩. ⟨hal-04037581⟩
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