Many-objective risk assessment framework for guiding operational decisions on multiple reservoirs - INRAE - Institut national de recherche pour l’agriculture, l’alimentation et l’environnement Access content directly
Conference Poster Year : 2021

Many-objective risk assessment framework for guiding operational decisions on multiple reservoirs

Quan Dau
David Dorchies


Effective optimisation methods have emerged over the last few decades to deal with the management of multiple reservoirs serving multiple and often conflicting objectives. Despite the abundant literature on the subject, the practical use of these techniques in the field remains very limited because they are perceived as black boxes whose behaviour is difficult to understand for users and decision-makers (Pianosi et al. 2020).Optimisation using one or more aggregated objectives can create stakeholder reluctance when they do not recognize their values and objectives in the optimization formulation, while also raising ethical concerns related to the inclusion of undesirable and/or hidden trade-offs. In contrast, an approach considering many non-aggregated objectives has the potential to bring out alternative courses of action that better reflect the diverging perspectives of stakeholders, and align better with ethical concerns (Kasprzyk et al. 2016). To deal with this problem, we here follow the Wierzbicki's (1979) "reference objective" concept considering each single objective as a utopia point optimised separately by deterministic dynamic programming. The optimisation, taking into account given hydroclimatic conditions and a chosen set of constraints, provides yearly probabilistic upper or lower rule curves reflecting the risk of failing to achieve each of the objectives in the future (Bader 1992). In order to use these data, we have developed a graphical user interface based on an R Shiny application showing the risk probability of future failure of each objective depending on the calendar day and the current or forecasted storage state of each reservoir. This framework is applied on the Seine catchment area in Paris, France, which includes a system of 4 large reservoirs to protect against floods and water shortages for multiple flow thresholds and multiple locations downstream from the reservoirs. Historical datasets as well as climate change projections are used to take into account the non-stationarity nature of hydroclimatic conditions. Among other applications, this example shows the utility of such a tool in order to justify the stakeholders decisions to discard minor objectives when they undermine the chances of success of major objectives in critical situations.


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Dates and versions

hal-04076377 , version 1 (20-04-2023)





Quan Dau, David Dorchies, Jean-Claude Bader. Many-objective risk assessment framework for guiding operational decisions on multiple reservoirs. EGU General Assembly 2021 - vEGU21: Gather Online, Apr 2021, Vienne (AUT), Austria. 2021, ⟨10.5194/egusphere-egu21-10676⟩. ⟨hal-04076377⟩
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