Connecting hydrological modelling and forecasting from global to local scales: Perspectives from an international joint virtual workshop
Abstract
The unprecedented progress in ensemble hydro-meteorological modelling and
forecasting on a range of temporal and spatial scales, raises a variety of new
challenges which formed the theme of the Joint Virtual Workshop, ‘Connecting global to local hydrological modelling and forecasting: challenges and
scientific advances’. Held from 29 June to 1 July 2021, this workshop was coorganised by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
(ECMWF), the Copernicus Emergency Management (CEMS) and Climate
Change (C3S) Services, the Hydrological Ensemble Prediction EXperiment
(HEPEX), and the Global Flood Partnership (GFP). This article aims to summarise the state-of-the-art presented at the workshop and provide an early
career perspective. Recent advances in hydrological modelling and forecasting,
reflections on the use of forecasts for decision-making across scales, and means
to minimise new barriers to communication in the virtual format are also discussed. Thematic foci of the workshop included hydrological model development and skill assessment, uncertainty communication, forecasts for early
action, co-production of services and incorporation of local knowledge, Earth
observation, and data assimilation. Connecting hydrological services to societal
needs and local decision-making through effective communication, capacitybuilding and co-production was identified as critical. Multidisciplinary collaborations emerged as crucial to effectively bring newly developed tools to
practice
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