Integrated global assessment of the natural forest carbon potential - INRAE - Institut national de recherche pour l’agriculture, l’alimentation et l’environnement
Journal Articles Nature Year : 2023

Integrated global assessment of the natural forest carbon potential

Lidong Mo (1) , Constantin M Zohner (1) , Peter B Reich (2, 3) , Jingjing Liang (4) , Sergio de Miguel (5) , Gert-Jan Nabuurs (6) , Susanne S Renner (7) , Johan van den Hoogen (1) , Arnan Araza (6) , Martin Herold (8) , Leila Mirzagholi (1) , Haozhi Ma (1) , Colin Averill (1) , Oliver L Phillips (9) , Javier G P Gamarra (10) , Iris Hordijk (1) , Devin Routh (11) , Meinrad Abegg (12) , Yves C Adou Yao (13) , Giorgio Alberti (14) , Angelica M Almeyda Zambrano , Braulio Vilchez Alvarado , Esteban Alvarez-Dávila , Patricia Alvarez-Loayza , Luciana F Alves , Iêda Amaral , Christian Ammer , Clara Antón-Fernández , Alejandro Araujo-Murakami , Luzmila Arroyo , Valerio Avitabile , Gerardo A Aymard , Timothy R Baker , Radomir Bałazy , Olaf Banki , Jorcely G Barroso , Meredith L Bastian , Jean-Francois Bastin , Luca Birigazzi , Philippe Birnbaum (15, 16, 17) , Robert Bitariho , Pascal Boeckx , Frans Bongers , Olivier Bouriaud , Pedro H S Brancalion , Susanne Brandl , Francis Q Brearley , Roel Brienen , Eben N Broadbent , Helge Bruelheide , Filippo Bussotti , Roberto Cazzolla Gatti , Ricardo G César , Goran Cesljar , Robin L Chazdon , Han Chen , Chelsea Chisholm , Hyunkook Cho , Emil Cienciala , Connie Clark , David Clark , Gabriel D Colletta , David A Coomes , Fernando Cornejo Valverde , José J Corral-Rivas , Philip M Crim , Jonathan R Cumming , Selvadurai Dayanandan , André L de Gasper , Mathieu Decuyper , Géraldine Derroire , Ben Devries , Ilija Djordjevic , Jiri Dolezal , Aurélie Dourdain , Nestor Laurier Engone Obiang , Brian J Enquist , Teresa J Eyre , Adandé Belarmain Fandohan , Tom M Fayle , Ted R Feldpausch , Leandro V Ferreira , Leena Finér , Markus Fischer , Christine Fletcher , Lorenzo Frizzera , Damiano Gianelle , Henry B Glick , David J Harris , Andrew Hector , Andreas Hemp , Geerten Hengeveld , Bruno Hérault (18) , John L Herbohn , Annika Hillers , Eurídice N Honorio Coronado , Cang Hui , Thomas Ibanez (15) , Nobuo Imai , Andrzej M Jagodziński , Bogdan Jaroszewicz , Vivian Kvist Johannsen , Carlos A Joly , Tommaso Jucker , Ilbin Jung , Viktor Karminov , Kuswata Kartawinata , Elizabeth Kearsley , David Kenfack , Deborah K Kennard , Sebastian Kepfer-Rojas , Gunnar Keppel (19) , Mohammed Latif Khan , Timothy J Killeen , Hyun Seok Kim , Kanehiro Kitayama , Michael Köhl , Henn Korjus , Florian Kraxner , Dmitry Kucher , Diana Laarmann , Mait Lang , Huicui Lu , Natalia V Lukina , Brian S Maitner , Yadvinder Malhi , Eric Marcon (15, 20) , Beatriz Schwantes Marimon , Ben Hur Marimon-Junior , Andrew R Marshall , Emanuel H Martin , Jorge A Meave , Omar Melo-Cruz , Casimiro Mendoza , Irina Mendoza-Polo , Stanislaw Miscicki , Cory Merow , Abel Monteagudo Mendoza , Vanessa S Moreno , Sharif A Mukul , Philip Mundhenk , María Guadalupe Nava-Miranda , David Neill , Victor J Neldner , Radovan V Nevenic , Michael R Ngugi , Pascal A Niklaus , Jacek Oleksyn , Petr Ontikov , Edgar Ortiz-Malavasi , Yude Pan , Alain Paquette , Alexander Parada-Gutierrez , Elena I Parfenova , Minjee Park , Marc Parren , Narayanaswamy Parthasarathy , Pablo L Peri , Sebastian Pfautsch , Nicolas Picard , Maria Teresa F. Piedade , Daniel Piotto , Nigel C A Pitman , Axel Dalberg Poulsen , John R Poulsen , Hans Pretzsch , Freddy Ramirez Arevalo , Zorayda Restrepo-Correa , Mirco Rodeghiero , Samir G Rolim , Anand Roopsind , Francesco Rovero , Ervan Rutishauser , Purabi Saikia , Christian Salas-Eljatib , Philippe Saner , Peter Schall , Mart-Jan Schelhaas , Dmitry Schepaschenko , Michael Scherer-Lorenzen , Bernhard Schmid , Jochen Schöngart , Eric B Searle , Vladimír Seben , Josep M Serra-Diaz , Douglas Sheil , Anatoly Z Shvidenko , Javier E Silva-Espejo , Marcos Silveira , James Singh , Plinio Sist , Ferry Slik , Bonaventure Sonké , Alexandre F Souza , Krzysztof J Stereńczak , Jens-Christian Svenning , Miroslav Svoboda , Ben Swanepoel , Natalia Targhetta , Nadja Tchebakova , Hans ter Steege , Raquel Thomas , Elena Tikhonova , Peter M Umunay , Vladimir A Usoltsev , Renato Valencia , Fernando Valladares , Fons van der Plas , Tran van Do , Michael E van Nuland , Rodolfo M Vasquez , Hans Verbeeck , Helder Viana , Alexander C Vibrans , Simone Vieira , Klaus von Gadow , Hua-Feng Wang , James V Watson , Gijsbert D A Werner , Susan K Wiser , Florian Wittmann , Hannsjoerg Woell , Verginia Wortel , Roderik Zagt , Tomasz Zawiła-Niedźwiecki , Chunyu Zhang , Xiuhai Zhao , Mo Zhou , Zhi-Xin Zhu , Irie C Zo-Bi , George D Gann , Thomas W Crowther (1)
Lidong Mo
Jingjing Liang
Sergio de Miguel
Susanne S Renner
Haozhi Ma
Oliver L Phillips
Angelica M Almeyda Zambrano
  • Function : Author
Braulio Vilchez Alvarado
  • Function : Author
Esteban Alvarez-Dávila
  • Function : Author
Patricia Alvarez-Loayza
  • Function : Author
Luciana F Alves
Iêda Amaral
  • Function : Author
Christian Ammer
Clara Antón-Fernández
Alejandro Araujo-Murakami
  • Function : Author
Luzmila Arroyo
  • Function : Author
Valerio Avitabile
Gerardo A Aymard
Timothy R Baker
Radomir Bałazy
  • Function : Author
Olaf Banki
Jorcely G Barroso
  • Function : Author
Meredith L Bastian
Jean-Francois Bastin
Luca Birigazzi
  • Function : Author
Robert Bitariho
Pascal Boeckx
Frans Bongers
Olivier Bouriaud
Pedro H S Brancalion
Susanne Brandl
  • Function : Author
Francis Q Brearley
  • Function : Author
Roel Brienen
Eben N Broadbent
  • Function : Author
Helge Bruelheide
Filippo Bussotti
  • Function : Author
Roberto Cazzolla Gatti
  • Function : Author
Ricardo G César
  • Function : Author
Goran Cesljar
  • Function : Author
Robin L Chazdon
Han Chen
Chelsea Chisholm
Hyunkook Cho
  • Function : Author
Emil Cienciala
Connie Clark
  • Function : Author
David Clark
  • Function : Author
Gabriel D Colletta
  • Function : Author
David A Coomes
Fernando Cornejo Valverde
  • Function : Author
José J Corral-Rivas
  • Function : Author
Philip M Crim
Jonathan R Cumming
  • Function : Author
Selvadurai Dayanandan
  • Function : Author
André L de Gasper
Mathieu Decuyper
Géraldine Derroire
Ben Devries
Ilija Djordjevic
  • Function : Author
Jiri Dolezal
Aurélie Dourdain
  • Function : Author
  • PersonId : 1405224
Nestor Laurier Engone Obiang
  • Function : Author
Brian J Enquist
Teresa J Eyre
  • Function : Author
Adandé Belarmain Fandohan
Tom M Fayle
  • Function : Author
Ted R Feldpausch
  • Function : Author
Leandro V Ferreira
  • Function : Author
Leena Finér
  • Function : Author
Markus Fischer
Christine Fletcher
  • Function : Author
Lorenzo Frizzera
  • Function : Author
Damiano Gianelle
Henry B Glick
  • Function : Author
David J Harris
Andrew Hector
Andreas Hemp
Geerten Hengeveld
Bruno Hérault
John L Herbohn
  • Function : Author
Annika Hillers
  • Function : Author
Eurídice N Honorio Coronado
Cang Hui
Nobuo Imai
  • Function : Author
Andrzej M Jagodziński
Bogdan Jaroszewicz
Vivian Kvist Johannsen
Carlos A Joly
Tommaso Jucker
  • Function : Author
Ilbin Jung
  • Function : Author
Viktor Karminov
Kuswata Kartawinata
  • Function : Author
Elizabeth Kearsley
David Kenfack
Deborah K Kennard
Sebastian Kepfer-Rojas
Gunnar Keppel
Mohammed Latif Khan
Timothy J Killeen
  • Function : Author
Hyun Seok Kim
  • Function : Author
Kanehiro Kitayama
  • Function : Author
Michael Köhl
  • Function : Author
Henn Korjus
Florian Kraxner
Dmitry Kucher
  • Function : Author
Diana Laarmann
  • Function : Author
Mait Lang
  • Function : Author
Huicui Lu
  • Function : Author
Natalia V Lukina
Brian S Maitner
Yadvinder Malhi
  • Function : Author
Beatriz Schwantes Marimon
  • Function : Author
Ben Hur Marimon-Junior
Andrew R Marshall
  • Function : Author
Emanuel H Martin
  • Function : Author
Jorge A Meave
Omar Melo-Cruz
  • Function : Author
Casimiro Mendoza
  • Function : Author
Irina Mendoza-Polo
  • Function : Author
Stanislaw Miscicki
Cory Merow
Abel Monteagudo Mendoza
  • Function : Author
Vanessa S Moreno
  • Function : Author
Sharif A Mukul
Philip Mundhenk
  • Function : Author
María Guadalupe Nava-Miranda
David Neill
Victor J Neldner
  • Function : Author
Radovan V Nevenic
  • Function : Author
Michael R Ngugi
  • Function : Author
Pascal A Niklaus
Jacek Oleksyn
  • Function : Author
Petr Ontikov
  • Function : Author
Edgar Ortiz-Malavasi
  • Function : Author
Yude Pan
Alain Paquette
Alexander Parada-Gutierrez
  • Function : Author
Elena I Parfenova
Minjee Park
  • Function : Author
Marc Parren
  • Function : Author
Narayanaswamy Parthasarathy
  • Function : Author
Pablo L Peri
  • Function : Author
Sebastian Pfautsch
Nicolas Picard
  • Function : Author
Maria Teresa F. Piedade
Daniel Piotto
Nigel C A Pitman
  • Function : Author
Axel Dalberg Poulsen
John R Poulsen
Hans Pretzsch
Freddy Ramirez Arevalo
  • Function : Author
Zorayda Restrepo-Correa
  • Function : Author
Mirco Rodeghiero
  • Function : Author
Samir G Rolim
  • Function : Author
Anand Roopsind
  • Function : Author
Francesco Rovero
Ervan Rutishauser
  • Function : Author
Purabi Saikia
Christian Salas-Eljatib
Philippe Saner
  • Function : Author
Peter Schall
Mart-Jan Schelhaas
Dmitry Schepaschenko
Michael Scherer-Lorenzen
Bernhard Schmid
Jochen Schöngart
  • Function : Author
Eric B Searle
Vladimír Seben
Josep M Serra-Diaz
Douglas Sheil
Anatoly Z Shvidenko
Javier E Silva-Espejo
  • Function : Author
Marcos Silveira
James Singh
  • Function : Author
Plinio Sist
  • Function : Author
Ferry Slik
  • Function : Author
Bonaventure Sonké
  • Function : Author
Alexandre F Souza
  • Function : Author
Krzysztof J Stereńczak
Jens-Christian Svenning
Miroslav Svoboda
Ben Swanepoel
  • Function : Author
Natalia Targhetta
  • Function : Author
Nadja Tchebakova
Hans ter Steege
Raquel Thomas
  • Function : Author
Elena Tikhonova
Peter M Umunay
Vladimir A Usoltsev
  • Function : Author
Renato Valencia
  • Function : Author
Fernando Valladares
  • Function : Author
Fons van der Plas
Tran van Do
Michael E van Nuland
Rodolfo M Vasquez
  • Function : Author
Hans Verbeeck
Helder Viana
Alexander C Vibrans
Simone Vieira
Klaus von Gadow
Hua-Feng Wang
  • Function : Author
James V Watson
  • Function : Author
Gijsbert D A Werner
  • Function : Author
Susan K Wiser
Florian Wittmann
  • Function : Author
Hannsjoerg Woell
  • Function : Author
Verginia Wortel
  • Function : Author
Roderik Zagt
  • Function : Author
Tomasz Zawiła-Niedźwiecki
  • Function : Author
Chunyu Zhang
Xiuhai Zhao
  • Function : Author
Mo Zhou
  • Function : Author
Zhi-Xin Zhu
  • Function : Author
Irie C Zo-Bi
George D Gann
  • Function : Author

Abstract

Forests are a substantial terrestrial carbon sink, but anthropogenic changes in land use and climate have considerably reduced the scale of this system 1 . Remote-sensing estimates to quantify carbon losses from global forests 2–5 are characterized by considerable uncertainty and we lack a comprehensive ground-sourced evaluation to benchmark these estimates. Here we combine several ground-sourced 6 and satellite-derived approaches 2,7,8 to evaluate the scale of the global forest carbon potential outside agricultural and urban lands. Despite regional variation, the predictions demonstrated remarkable consistency at a global scale, with only a 12% difference between the ground-sourced and satellite-derived estimates. At present, global forest carbon storage is markedly under the natural potential, with a total deficit of 226 Gt (model range = 151–363 Gt) in areas with low human footprint. Most (61%, 139 Gt C) of this potential is in areas with existing forests, in which ecosystem protection can allow forests to recover to maturity. The remaining 39% (87 Gt C) of potential lies in regions in which forests have been removed or fragmented. Although forests cannot be a substitute for emissions reductions, our results support the idea 2,3,9 that the conservation, restoration and sustainable management of diverse forests offer valuable contributions to meeting global climate and biodiversity targets.
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Dates and versions

hal-04290984 , version 1 (17-11-2023)

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Lidong Mo, Constantin M Zohner, Peter B Reich, Jingjing Liang, Sergio de Miguel, et al.. Integrated global assessment of the natural forest carbon potential. Nature, 2023, 624, pp.92-101. ⟨10.1038/s41586-023-06723-z⟩. ⟨hal-04290984⟩
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