Megafloods in Europe can be anticipated from observations in hydrologically similar catchments
Miriam Bertola
(1)
,
Günter Blöschl
(1)
,
Milon Bohac
(2)
,
Marco Borga
(3)
,
Attilio Castellarin
(4)
,
Giovanni B Chirico
(5)
,
Pierluigi Claps
(6)
,
Eleonora Dallan
(3)
,
Irina Danilovich
(7)
,
Daniele Ganora
(6)
,
Liudmyla Gorbachova
(8)
,
Ondrej Ledvinka
(2)
,
Maria Mavrova-Guirguinova
(9)
,
Alberto Montanari
(4)
,
Valeriya Ovcharuk
(10)
,
Alberto Viglione
(6)
,
Elena Volpi
(11)
,
Berit Arheimer
(12)
,
Giuseppe Tito Aronica
(13)
,
Ognjen Bonacci
(14)
,
Ivan Čanjevac
(15)
,
Andras Csik
(16)
,
Natalia Frolova
(17)
,
Boglarka Gnandt
(16)
,
Zoltan Gribovszki
(18)
,
Ali Gül
(19)
,
Knut Günther
(20)
,
Björn Guse
(20, 21)
,
Jamie Hannaford
(22, 23)
,
Shaun Harrigan
(24)
,
Maria Kireeva
(17)
,
Silvia Kohnová
(25)
,
Jürgen Komma
(1)
,
Jurate Kriauciuniene
(26)
,
Brian Kronvang
(27)
,
Deborah Lawrence
(28)
,
Stefan Lüdtke
(20)
,
Luis Mediero
(29)
,
Bruno Merz
(20, 30)
,
Peter Molnar
(31)
,
Conor Murphy
(23)
,
Dijana Oskoruš
(32, 15)
,
Marzena Osuch
(33)
,
Juraj Parajka
(1)
,
Laurent Pfister
(34)
,
Ivan Radevski
(35)
,
Eric Sauquet
(36)
,
Kai Schröter
(37)
,
Mojca Šraj
(38)
,
Jan Szolgay
(25)
,
Stephen Turner
(22)
,
Peter Valent
(1)
,
Noora Veijalainen
(39)
,
Philip J Ward
(40, 41)
,
Nenad Zivkovic
(42)
,
Patrick Willems
1
TU Wien -
Vienna University of Technology = Technische Universität Wien
2 CHMI - Czech Hydrometeorological Institute
3 Unipd - Università degli Studi di Padova = University of Padua
4 UNIBO - Alma Mater Studiorum Università di Bologna = University of Bologna
5 University of Naples Federico II = Università degli studi di Napoli Federico II
6 Polito - Politecnico di Torino = Polytechnic of Turin
7 NASB - National Academy of Sciences of Belarus
8 UHMI - Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Institute
9 UACEG - University of Architecture, Civil Engineering and Geodesy
10 OSEU - Odessa State Environmental University
11 ROMA TRE - Università degli Studi Roma Tre = Roma Tre University
12 SMHI - Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute
13 University of Messina
14 University of Split
15 University of Zagreb
16 Directorate-General of Public Works and Water Management
17 MSU - Lomonosov Moscow State University
18 University of West Hungary [Sopron]
19 DEÜ - Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi = Dokuz Eylül University [Izmir]
20 GFZ - German Research Centre for Geosciences - Helmholtz-Centre Potsdam
21 CAU - Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel = Christian-Albrechts University of Kiel = Université Christian-Albrechts de Kiel
22 CEH - Centre for Ecology and Hydrology
23 Maynooth University - National University of Ireland Maynooth
24 ECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
25 STU - Slovak University of Technology in Bratislava
26 LEI - Lithuanian Energy Institute
27 Aarhus University [Aarhus]
28 NVE - Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate
29 UPM - Universidad Politécnica de Madrid
30 University of Potsdam = Universität Potsdam
31 Institute of Environmental Engineering, ETH Zurich, Zurich
32 DHMZ - Croatian Meteorological and Hydrological Service
33 Institute of Geophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences64, PL-01452, Warsaw
34 LIST - Luxembourg Institute of Science and Technology
35 UKIM - Ss. Cyril and Methodius University in Skopje
36 RiverLy - RiverLy - Fonctionnement des hydrosystèmes
37 Technische Universität Braunschweig = Technical University of Braunschweig [Braunschweig]
38 University of Ljubljana
39 SYKE - Finnish Environment Institute
40 VU - Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam [Amsterdam]
41 Deltares [The Netherlands]
42 Department of Civil Engineering, KU Leuven, Leuven
2 CHMI - Czech Hydrometeorological Institute
3 Unipd - Università degli Studi di Padova = University of Padua
4 UNIBO - Alma Mater Studiorum Università di Bologna = University of Bologna
5 University of Naples Federico II = Università degli studi di Napoli Federico II
6 Polito - Politecnico di Torino = Polytechnic of Turin
7 NASB - National Academy of Sciences of Belarus
8 UHMI - Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Institute
9 UACEG - University of Architecture, Civil Engineering and Geodesy
10 OSEU - Odessa State Environmental University
11 ROMA TRE - Università degli Studi Roma Tre = Roma Tre University
12 SMHI - Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute
13 University of Messina
14 University of Split
15 University of Zagreb
16 Directorate-General of Public Works and Water Management
17 MSU - Lomonosov Moscow State University
18 University of West Hungary [Sopron]
19 DEÜ - Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi = Dokuz Eylül University [Izmir]
20 GFZ - German Research Centre for Geosciences - Helmholtz-Centre Potsdam
21 CAU - Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel = Christian-Albrechts University of Kiel = Université Christian-Albrechts de Kiel
22 CEH - Centre for Ecology and Hydrology
23 Maynooth University - National University of Ireland Maynooth
24 ECMWF - European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
25 STU - Slovak University of Technology in Bratislava
26 LEI - Lithuanian Energy Institute
27 Aarhus University [Aarhus]
28 NVE - Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate
29 UPM - Universidad Politécnica de Madrid
30 University of Potsdam = Universität Potsdam
31 Institute of Environmental Engineering, ETH Zurich, Zurich
32 DHMZ - Croatian Meteorological and Hydrological Service
33 Institute of Geophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences64, PL-01452, Warsaw
34 LIST - Luxembourg Institute of Science and Technology
35 UKIM - Ss. Cyril and Methodius University in Skopje
36 RiverLy - RiverLy - Fonctionnement des hydrosystèmes
37 Technische Universität Braunschweig = Technical University of Braunschweig [Braunschweig]
38 University of Ljubljana
39 SYKE - Finnish Environment Institute
40 VU - Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam [Amsterdam]
41 Deltares [The Netherlands]
42 Department of Civil Engineering, KU Leuven, Leuven
Miriam Bertola
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Eric Sauquet
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Patrick Willems
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Résumé
Megafloods that far exceed previously observed records often take citizens and experts by surprise, resulting in extremely severe damage and loss of life. Existing methods based on local and regional information rarely go beyond national borders and cannot predict these floods well because of limited data on megafloods, and because flood generation processes of extremes differ from those of smaller, more frequently observed events. Here we analyse river discharge observations from over 8000 gauging stations across Europe and show that recent megafloods could have been anticipated from those previously observed in other places of Europe. Almost all observed megafloods (95.5%) fall within the envelope values estimated from previous floods at other similar places on the continent, implying that local surprises are not surprising at the continental scale. This holds also for older events, indicating that megafloods have not changed much in time relative to their spatial variability. The 94 underlying concept of the study is that catchments with similar flood generation processes produce similar outliers. It is thus essential to transcend national boundaries and learn from other places across the continent to avoid surprises and save lives.
Domaines
Hydrologie
Origine : Fichiers produits par l'(les) auteur(s)