Köppen–Geiger climate classification across France based on an ensemble of high-resolution climate projections - INRAE - Institut national de recherche pour l’agriculture, l’alimentation et l’environnement Access content directly
Journal Articles Comptes Rendus. Géoscience Year : 2024

Köppen–Geiger climate classification across France based on an ensemble of high-resolution climate projections

Abstract

Climate change will define new living and environmental conditions in many areas in the world, deeply affecting our societies. Public outreach on the impacts of climate change on societies and ecosystems is difficult, yet crucial for fostering mitigation and adaptation strategies. To quantify the climate change and communicate about it in easily-understandable terms, we used the climate classification system of Köppen–Geiger. 84 climate projections bias corrected with two methods were used to calculate Köppen–Geiger climate types at an 8-km resolution for 30-year periods from 1976 to 2099 in France. Moderate changes in climate types are expected in 2035 for approximately 20% of France, regardless of the emission scenario. However, major changes are expected after 2040 under RCP 8.5 for 86% of France, with a massive expansion of the temperate, hot summer with or without dry season, as well as the expansion of temperate climate in mountainous regions. We found that these changes could reach an average transition speed of 7 km·yr-1 northwards. These rapid changes will have unprecedented consequences on agriculture, biodiversity, water and energy management, not to mention on societies. Similar changes can be expected in other European countries that share the diverse climatic and topographical conditions found in France.
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hal-04619444 , version 1 (21-06-2024)

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Laurent Strohmenger, Lila Collet, Vazken Andréassian, Lola Corre, Fabienne Rousset, et al.. Köppen–Geiger climate classification across France based on an ensemble of high-resolution climate projections. Comptes Rendus. Géoscience, 2024, 356 (G1), pp.67-82. ⟨10.5802/crgeos.263⟩. ⟨hal-04619444⟩
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