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Analyse bayésienne des courbes de tarage et de leurs incertitudes : la méthode BaRatin

Abstract : Among other methods, Bayesian inference recently emerged as a promising framework for establishing stage‑discharge relationships and for rigorously estimating the associated uncertainty. A methodology and some tools have been developed to analyse stationary rating curves, i.e., assuming that the stage‑discharge relationship is stable over the period under consideration (no rating shifts). The principles of the BaRatin method are presented through its three main steps: 1) determination of hydraulic priors, 2) review and validation of streamgaugings, 3) Bayesian inference and simulation of a set of plausible curves. The operational application of the method is made easier through the GUI BaRatinAGE, which is freely distributed along with the BaRatin software and is currently being integrated into the hydrometry software BAREME. The potential of the method is illustrated with an example of application to a gauging station and with the process of appropriation by a hydrometry service. Besides the application to other types of calibration curves, the main development perspective for the BaRatin method is to take into account non‑stationary effects with time‑varying parameters.
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J. Le Coz, C. Chaléon, L. Bonnifait, R. Le Boursicaud, Benjamin Renard, et al.. Analyse bayésienne des courbes de tarage et de leurs incertitudes : la méthode BaRatin. La Houille Blanche - Revue internationale de l'eau, EDP Sciences, 2013, 6, pp.31-41. ⟨10.1051/lhb/2013048⟩. ⟨hal-01122602⟩



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