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Projet R²D² 2050 : Risque, ressource en eau et gestion durable de la Durance en 2050

Abstract : The Durance River is one of the major rivers located in the Southern part of France. Water resources are under high pressure due to significant abstractions for various water uses (irrigation, hydropower, drinking water, industries, recreation and ecological services) within and out of the river basin. The water management with the Durance River basin will have to face global change that may question the sustainability of the current rules for water allocation. A chain of models was developed to simulate climate at regional scale (given by 3300 projections obtained by applying three downscaling methods), water resources (provided by six rainfall-runoff models forced by a subset of 330 climate projections), water demand for agriculture and water supply for domestic purposes for different sub-basins of the Durance River basin upstream of Mallemort under present-day and future conditions. A model of water management was developed to simulate reservoir operations for the three main dams (Serre-Ponçon, Castillon, Sainte-Croix) on present-day conditions. This model simulates water releases from reservoir under constraints imposed by rule curves, ecological flows downstream to the dams and water levels in summer for recreational purposes. Four territorial socio-economic scenarios were also elaborated with the help of stake holders to project water needs in the 2050s for the areas supplied with water diverted from the Durance River basin. Results suggest: - a projected increase of the average air temperature with consequences on snow accumulation and melt processes; - no significant trends in total precipitation; - a decrease in snowpack, which will lead to reduced flows, especially in the spring season; - a decrease in water resources in summer; - an increase of pressure on water resources; - a decrease in water demand for irrigation as a consequence of the socio economics scenarios; - a decrease in energy produced by the main dams in the Durance River basin in the 2050s mainly due to reduced annual inflows; - a full compliance with water needs for priority uses downstream the reservoir but a lower flexibility for hydropower management during winter peak energy demand.
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Submitted on : Saturday, May 16, 2020 - 6:47:51 AM
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  • HAL Id : hal-02601503, version 1
  • IRSTEA : PUB00044634

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Eric Sauquet, Y. Arama, E. Blanc Coutagne, Hélène Bouscasse, F. Branger, et al.. Projet R²D² 2050 : Risque, ressource en eau et gestion durable de la Durance en 2050. [Rapport de recherche] irstea. 2015, pp.245. ⟨hal-02601503⟩

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