EURO-CORDEX: new high-resolution climate change projections for European impact research

Daniela Jacob; Juliane Petersen; Bastian Eggert; Antoinette Alias; Ole Bossing Christensen; Laurens M. Bouwer; Alain Braun; Augustin Colette; Michel Deque; Goran Georgievski; Elena Georgopoulou; Andreas Gobiet; Laurent Menut; Grigory Nikulin; Andreas Haensler; Nils Hempelmann; Colins Jones; Klaus Keuler; Sari Kovats; Nico Kroner; Sven Kotlarski; Arne Kriegsmann; Eric Martin; Erik van Meijgaard; Christopher Moseley; Susanne Pfeifer; Swantje Preuschmann; Christine Radermacher; Kai Radtke; Diana Rechid; Mark Rounsevell; Patrick Samuelsson; Samuel Somot; Jean-François Soussana; Claas Teichmann; Riccardo Valentini; Robert Vautard; Bjorn Weber; Pascal Yiou

doi:10.1007/s10113-013-0499-2

Journal articles

EURO-CORDEX: new high-resolution climate change projections for European impact research

Daniela Jacob ¹ Juliane Petersen ¹ Bastian Eggert ¹ Antoinette Alias ² Ole Bossing Christensen ³ Laurens M. Bouwer ⁴ Alain Braun ² Augustin Colette ⁵ Michel Deque ² Goran Georgievski ⁶ Elena Georgopoulou ⁷ Andreas Gobiet ^{8, 9} Laurent Menut ¹⁰ Grigory Nikulin ¹¹ Andreas Haensler ¹ Nils Hempelmann ¹ Colins Jones ¹¹ Klaus Keuler ⁶ Sari Kovats ¹² Nico Kroner ¹³ Sven Kotlarski ¹³ Arne Kriegsmann ¹ Eric Martin ² Erik van Meijgaard ¹⁴ Christopher Moseley ¹ Susanne Pfeifer ¹ Swantje Preuschmann ¹ Christine Radermacher ¹⁵ Kai Radtke ⁶ Diana Rechid ¹ Mark Rounsevell ¹⁶ Patrick Samuelsson ¹¹ Samuel Somot ² Jean-François Soussana ¹⁷ Claas Teichmann ¹ Riccardo Valentini ¹⁸ Robert Vautard ^{19, 20} Bjorn Weber ¹ Pascal Yiou ^{19, 20}

1 Climate Service Center

2 CNRM-GAME - Groupe d'étude de l'atmosphère météorologique

3 Danish Climate Centre

4 Institute for Environmental Studies

5 INERIS - Institut National de l'Environnement Industriel et des Risques

6 BTU - Brandenburg University of Technology [Cottbus – Senftenberg]

7 Institute for Environmental Research and Sustainable Development

8 WEGC - Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change

9 IGAM - Institute for Geophysics, Astrophysics and Meteorology [Graz]

10 LMD - Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539)

11 SMHI - Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute

12 LSHTM - London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine

13 ETH Zürich - Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology [Zürich]

14 KNMI - Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute

15 MPI-M - Max Planck Institute for Meteorology

16 School of GeoSciences, Institute of Geography & the Lived Environment

17 UR 0874 Unité de recherche sur l'Ecosystème Prairial

18 Department of Forest Science and Environment

19 LSCE - Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette]

20 ESTIMR - Extrèmes : Statistiques, Impacts et Régionalisation

LSCE - Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] : DRF/LSCE

Abstract : A new high-resolution regional climate change ensemble has been established for Europe within the World Climate Research Program Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (EURO-CORDEX) initiative. The first set of simulations with a horizontal resolution of 12.5 km was completed for the new emission scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 with more simulations expected to follow. The aim of this paper is to present this data set to the different communities active in regional climate modelling, impact assessment and adaptation. The EURO-CORDEX ensemble results have been compared to the SRES A1B simulation results achieved within the ENSEMBLES project. The large-scale patterns of changes in mean temperature and precipitation are similar in all three scenarios, but they differ in regional details, which can partly be related to the higher resolution in EURO-CORDEX. The results strengthen those obtained in ENSEMBLES, but need further investigations. The analysis of impact indices shows that for RCP8.5, there is a substantially larger change projected for temperature-based indices than for RCP4.5. The difference is less pronounced for precipitation-based indices. Two effects of the increased resolution can be regarded as an added value of regional climate simulations. Regional climate model simulations provide higher daily precipitation intensities, which are completely missing in the global climate model simulations, and they provide a significantly different climate change of daily precipitation intensities resulting in a smoother shift from weak to moderate and high intensities.

Keywords : DRY SPELLS HEAVY PRECIPITATION EURO-CORDEX HEAT WAVE REGIONAL CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT INDICES

Document type :

Journal articles

Domain :

Environmental Sciences

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