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Impacts du changement climatique sur les calendriers agricoles : exemples de cultures céréalières du Plateau lorrain

Abstract : Crops phenology is driven by climate characteristic and since many years climatologists point out a general trend on temperature. We know that temperature increases may also have an impact on development of diverse crop. The trends of global Climate Changes also affect the trend in local temperature values. What are the local effects on cropping systems of these global trends? Our hypothesis is: cropping systems designed by farmers are influenced by these trends, and agronomists have to study the multiple adaptations managed by farmers. This study was conducted to determine whether the cereal crop cycles are modified by French farmers and experimental managers according to general climate change trends. This study located in Lorraine (east of France) tries to test the hypothesis obtained in Finland: the sowing dates are earlier. Cropping systems calendars are investigated with two methods: (i) surveys using 12 farmers monitoring booklets since 1978 (30 years length) and (ii) experimental data from the Inra Mirecourt research station (SAD Aster unit) since 1970 (40 years length). This cropping system data are related with climatic data from INRA climatological station. This study shows common trends for farmers and experimental data, between 1978 and 2008. For wheat, the beginning of the harvest is 18 days earlier, 8 days for the beginning of sowing, and so, the total cycle is 10 days shorter. For barley, the beginning of the harvest is 21 days earlier, the beginning of sowing is 5 days later, and so, the total cycle is 26 days earlier. For corn only studied in experimental station, the sowing is 30 days earlier, the harvest is 25 days earlier despite using later cultivars (from 170 index to 260 index) .More precisely, for wheat, the most cultivate crop, harvest date is 19 days earlier since 1978. However, during the same period, sowing date is only 10 days earlier.Sowing date show anticipation the 20 first years of our study period, but for 10 years the opposite trends appears. So, the phenological cycle of wheat is 9 days shorter during the last 30 years. We observe a high variability in the sowing and harvest day per year. This variability explains the small R2 of our statistical regression. Statistical results are exposed in the table. At decade scale, harvest date is statistically earliest in the 00’s than in the 90’s, which is statistically earliest.
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Marc Benoît, Thomas Fournier, Claudia de la Torre. Impacts du changement climatique sur les calendriers agricoles : exemples de cultures céréalières du Plateau lorrain. Agronomie, Environnement & Sociétés, Association Française d'Agronomie (Afa), 2015, 5 (1), pp.55-65. ⟨hal-02632007⟩

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