Uncertainty of wheat water use: simulated patterns and sensitivity to temperature and CO2
Davide Cammarano
(1, 2)
,
Reimund P. Rotter
(3, 4)
,
Senthold Asseng
(1)
,
Frank Ewert
(5, 6)
,
Daniel Wallach
(7)
,
Pierre Martre
(8, 9)
,
Jerry L. Hatfield
(10)
,
James W. Jones
(1)
,
Cynthia Rosenzweig
(11)
,
Alex C. Ruane
(11)
,
Kenneth J. Boote
(1)
,
Peter J. Thorburn
(12)
,
Kurt Christian Kersebaum
(13)
,
Pramod K. Aggarwal
(14)
,
Carlos Angulo
(6)
,
Bruno Basso
(15)
,
Patrick Bertuzzi
(16)
,
Christian Biernath
(17)
,
Nadine Brisson
(18)
,
Andrew J. Challinor
(14, 19)
,
Jordi Doltra
(20)
,
Sebastian Gayler
(21)
,
Richie Goldberg
(11)
,
Lee Heng
(22)
,
Josh Hooker
(23, 24)
,
Leslie A. Hunt
(25)
,
Joachim Ingwersen
(26)
,
Roberto C. Izaurralde
(27, 28)
,
Christoph Müller
(29)
,
Soora Naresh Kumar
(30)
,
Claas Nendel
(13)
,
Garry J. O'Leary
(31)
,
Jorgen E. Olesen
(32)
,
Tom M. Osborne
(33)
,
Taru Palosuo
(3)
,
Eckart Priesack
(17)
,
Dominique Ripoche
(16)
,
Mikhail A. Semenov
(34)
,
Iurii Shcherbak
(35)
,
Pasquale Steduto
(36)
,
Claudio O. Stöckle
(35)
,
Pierre Stratonovitch
(34)
,
Thilo Streck
(26)
,
Iwan Supit
(37)
,
Fulu Tao
(38, 3)
,
Maria Travasso
(39)
,
Katharina Waha
(40, 41)
,
Jeffrey W. White
(42)
,
Joost Wolf
(43)
1
UF|ABE -
Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering [Gainesville]
2 The James Hutton Institute
3 LUKE - Natural Resources Institute Finland
4 Department of Crop Sciences
5 ZALF - Leibniz-Zentrum für Agrarlandschaftsforschung
6 INRES - Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation [Bonn]
7 AGIR - AGroécologie, Innovations, teRritoires
8 LEPSE - Écophysiologie des Plantes sous Stress environnementaux
9 GDEC - Génétique Diversité et Ecophysiologie des Céréales
10 National Laboratory for Agriculture and Environment
11 NASA - National Aeronautics and Space Administration
12 Ecosystem sciences
13 ZALF - Leibniz-Zentrum für Agrarlandschaftsforschung = Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research
14 CGIAR - Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research
15 Michigan State University [East Lansing]
16 AGROCLIM - Agroclim
17 German Research Center for Environmental Health - Helmholtz Center München (GmbH)
18 Agronomie
19 University of Leeds
20 CIFA - Catabrian Agricultural Research and Training Center
21 Water & Earth System Science Competence Cluster
22 IAEA - International Atomic Energy Agency [Vienna]
23 European Commission
24 School of Agriculture, Policy and Development
25 Department of Plant Agriculture
26 Institute of Soil Science and Land Evaluation
27 University of Maryland [College Park]
28 Texas A and M AgriLife Research
29 Leibniz Association
30 CESCRA - Centre for Environment Science and Climate Resilient Agriculture
31 Landscape & Water Sciences
32 Department of Agroecology
33 Univ Reading, Dept Meteorol, Natl Ctr Atmospher Sci, Reading RG6 6BB, Berks, England
34 Computational and Systems Biology Department
35 WSU - Washington State University
36 FAO - Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations [France]
37 WUR - Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen]
38 IGSNRR - Institute of geographical sciences and natural resources research [CAS]
39 Institute for Climate and Water
40 CSIRO, Agr, 306 Carmody Rd, St Lucia, Qld 4067, Australia
41 Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, D-14473 Potsdam, Germany
42 USDA - United States Department of Agriculture
43 Plant Production Systems
2 The James Hutton Institute
3 LUKE - Natural Resources Institute Finland
4 Department of Crop Sciences
5 ZALF - Leibniz-Zentrum für Agrarlandschaftsforschung
6 INRES - Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation [Bonn]
7 AGIR - AGroécologie, Innovations, teRritoires
8 LEPSE - Écophysiologie des Plantes sous Stress environnementaux
9 GDEC - Génétique Diversité et Ecophysiologie des Céréales
10 National Laboratory for Agriculture and Environment
11 NASA - National Aeronautics and Space Administration
12 Ecosystem sciences
13 ZALF - Leibniz-Zentrum für Agrarlandschaftsforschung = Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research
14 CGIAR - Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research
15 Michigan State University [East Lansing]
16 AGROCLIM - Agroclim
17 German Research Center for Environmental Health - Helmholtz Center München (GmbH)
18 Agronomie
19 University of Leeds
20 CIFA - Catabrian Agricultural Research and Training Center
21 Water & Earth System Science Competence Cluster
22 IAEA - International Atomic Energy Agency [Vienna]
23 European Commission
24 School of Agriculture, Policy and Development
25 Department of Plant Agriculture
26 Institute of Soil Science and Land Evaluation
27 University of Maryland [College Park]
28 Texas A and M AgriLife Research
29 Leibniz Association
30 CESCRA - Centre for Environment Science and Climate Resilient Agriculture
31 Landscape & Water Sciences
32 Department of Agroecology
33 Univ Reading, Dept Meteorol, Natl Ctr Atmospher Sci, Reading RG6 6BB, Berks, England
34 Computational and Systems Biology Department
35 WSU - Washington State University
36 FAO - Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations [France]
37 WUR - Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen]
38 IGSNRR - Institute of geographical sciences and natural resources research [CAS]
39 Institute for Climate and Water
40 CSIRO, Agr, 306 Carmody Rd, St Lucia, Qld 4067, Australia
41 Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res, D-14473 Potsdam, Germany
42 USDA - United States Department of Agriculture
43 Plant Production Systems
Davide Cammarano
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 1071162
Frank Ewert
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 968227
Pierre Martre
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 183362
- IdHAL : pierre-martre
- ORCID : 0000-0002-7419-6558
- IdRef : 163589194
James W. Jones
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 958970
Andrew J. Challinor
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 968229
Christoph Müller
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 772079
- ORCID : 0000-0003-2234-6902
Claas Nendel
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 772081
- ORCID : 0000-0001-7608-9097
Mikhail A. Semenov
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 774453
- ORCID : 0000-0002-1561-7113
Résumé
Projected global warming and population growth will reduce future water availability for agriculture. Thus, it is essential to increase the efficiency in using water to ensure crop productivity. Quantifying crop water use (WU; i.e. actual evapotranspiration) is a critical step towards this goal. Here, sixteen wheat simulation models were used to quantify sources of model uncertainty and to estimate the relative changes and variability between models for simulated WU, water use efficiency (WUE, WU per unit of grain dry mass produced), transpiration efficiency (T-eff, transpiration per kg of unit of grain yield dry mass produced), grain yield, crop transpiration and soil evaporation at increased temperatures and elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations ([CO2]). The greatest uncertainty in simulating water use, potential evapotranspiration, crop transpiration and soil evaporation was due to differences in how crop transpiration was modelled and accounted for 50% of the total variability among models. The simulation results for the sensitivity to temperature indicated that crop WU will decline with increasing temperature due to reduced growing seasons. The uncertainties in simulated crop WU, and in particularly due to uncertainties in simulating crop transpiration, were greater under conditions of increased temperatures and with high temperatures in combination with elevated atmospheric [CO2] concentrations. Hence the simulation of crop WU, and in particularly crop transpiration under higher temperature, needs to be improved and evaluated with field measurements before models can be used to simulate climate change impacts on future crop water demand.
