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Partenariats stratégiques pour la sécurité alimentaire en Méditerranée - PSAM : rapport d'étape 3 : la situation céréalière en Méditerranée : enjeux stratégiques et éléments de prospective

Abstract : Since the "hunger riots" of 2008, new challenges seem to face the Mediterranean in terms of cereal food security. The rise in cereal prices has shown food balances fragility in some countries of southern and eastern Mediterranean (Maghreb, Egypt, Syria, Jordan, etc.). This episode had placed the issue of security and food sovereignty at the center of geopolitical concerns in many countries of the area. Currently, a window of opportunity linked to a renewal of global cereal stocks following an exceptional 2008 campaign, installs a "fake" feeling of security. Yet structural grain deficits and high external dependency of the region are still present, raising fears the worst about a further rise in international cereals prices . Our foresight analysis showed that all the cereal deficits in the Mediterranean could deteriorate in the future. The FAO projections indicate a widening gap between demand and grain production in the region. The effects of climate change, trade-offs between different cereal uses (Human food versus animal food versus biofuels), business strategies of major producers and the structural instability of international agricultural markets could result in a quantitative food insecurity in the region. In this context, our paper aims to analyse the foresights oh cereal situation in the Mediterranean region, with the backdrop of geopolitical and strategic issues raised by this issue. Through this exercise, the aim is not to "predict" the future but to outline some "possible future": Three contrasting hypothesis were the basis of our four scenarios approach.: strengthening regional food and agricultural cooperation, high liberalization of agriculture in the countries of southern and eastern Mediterranean, and sooner and more severely than expected climate change. In a fifth scenario, we combined the effects of the last two variants (climate change and agricultural liberalization).
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https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-02824017
Contributor : Migration Prodinra <>
Submitted on : Saturday, June 6, 2020 - 10:09:08 PM
Last modification on : Friday, November 6, 2020 - 10:05:50 AM

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  • HAL Id : hal-02824017, version 1
  • PRODINRA : 47622

Citation

Foued Cheriet, Jean-Louis Rastoin, . Umr Inra / Ciheam / Cirad / Montpelliersupagro : Marchés, Organisations, Institutions Et Stratégies d'Acteurs, . Centre International d'Etudes Supérieures En Sciences Agronomiques, . Institut de Prospective Economique Du Monde Méditerranéen. Partenariats stratégiques pour la sécurité alimentaire en Méditerranée - PSAM : rapport d'étape 3 : la situation céréalière en Méditerranée : enjeux stratégiques et éléments de prospective. [Autre] 2010. ⟨hal-02824017⟩

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