Skip to Main content Skip to Navigation
Preprints, Working Papers, ...

Starting the winter season: predicting endodormancy induction through multi-process modeling.

Abstract : In perennial plants, the annual phenological cycle is subdivided into successive stages whose completion will lead directly to the onset of the following one. A critical point is the transition between the apparent vegetative growth and the cryptic dormancy. To date, the initial date for chilling accumulation (DCA ) is arbitrarily set using various rules such as fixed or dynamic dates depending on environmental variables. These rules led to tremendous variability across studies and sites (from late summer until late autumn). To test the relevancy of different DCA , we used a dataset combining dormancy release dates, budburst dates and frost hardiness measurements from 50 years in various orchards across France and Spain for J. regia cv Franquette. Many of the tested DCA provided accurate results for the calibration and validation datasets (RMSEP < 10 and 8 days for endodormancy release and budburst dates, respectively). However, for frost hardiness, only the D CA provided by the DORMPHOT model provided accurate results (RMSEP < 3°C). The best D CA was thus selected using a composite index for all three processes. Testing the prediction under current and future climatic scenario showed that in, up to 25% of French territory under RCP 8.5 scenario, ecodormancy stage is likely to be delayed although temperature is increasing. Overall, less average frost damages are expected although decennial risk (i.e. return period of ten years) is likely to increase in autumn in 15% of French territory. In southern part of France, delayed dormancy induction and release would induce delayed budburst and blooming altering flower and fruit production, whereas North East and Massif Central parts of France may suffer higher frost risks from late frost acclimation. Finally, this study describes relationships between climatic variables and plant phenological processes to build metamodels predicting next century’s phenological cycles at the global scale.
Complete list of metadata
Contributor : Guillaume Charrier <>
Submitted on : Wednesday, March 31, 2021 - 7:11:40 PM
Last modification on : Thursday, June 3, 2021 - 3:37:09 AM


  • HAL Id : hal-03065757, version 2



Guillaume Charrier. Starting the winter season: predicting endodormancy induction through multi-process modeling.. 2021. ⟨hal-03065757v2⟩



Record views


Files downloads