Trends in prevalence of blindness and distance and near vision impairment over 30 years: an analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study
Rupert Bourne
(1)
,
Jaimie Steinmetz
(2)
,
Seth Flaxman
(3)
,
Paul Svitil Briant
(2)
,
Hugh Taylor
(4)
,
Serge Resnikoff
(5)
,
Robert James Casson
(6)
,
Amir Abdoli
(7)
,
Eman Abu-Gharbieh
(8)
,
Ashkan Afshin
(2)
,
Hamid Ahmadieh
(9)
,
Yonas Akalu
(10)
,
Alehegn Aderaw Alamneh
(11)
,
Wondu Alemayehu
(12)
,
Ahmed Samir Alfaar
(13)
,
Vahid Alipour
(14)
,
Etsay Woldu Anbesu
(15)
,
Sofia Androudi
(16)
,
Jalal Arabloo
(14)
,
Aries Arditi
(17)
,
Malke Asaad
(18)
,
Eleni Bagli
(19)
,
Atif Amin Baig
(20)
,
Till Winfried Bärnighausen
(7)
,
Maurizio Battaglia Parodi
(21)
,
Akshaya Srikanth Bhagavathula
(22)
,
Nikha Bhardwaj
(23)
,
Pankaj Bhardwaj
(24)
,
Krittika Bhattacharyya
(25)
,
Ali Bijani
(26)
,
Mukharram Bikbov
(27)
,
Michele Bottone
(3)
,
Tasanee Braithwaite
(28)
,
Alain Bron
(29, 30, 31)
,
Zahid Butt
(32)
,
Ching-Yu Cheng
(33)
,
Dinh-Toi Chu
(34)
,
Maria Vittoria Cicinelli
(35)
,
João Coelho
(36)
,
Baye Dagnew
(10)
,
Xiaochen Dai
(2)
,
Reza Dana
(37)
,
Lalit Dandona
(2)
,
Rakhi Dandona
(2)
,
Monte del Monte
(38)
,
Jenny Deva
(39)
,
Daniel Diaz
(40)
,
Shirin Djalalinia
(41)
,
Laura Dreer
(42)
,
Joshua Ehrlich
(38)
,
Leon Ellwein
(43)
,
Mohammad Hassan Emamian
(44)
,
Arthur Fernandes
(45)
,
Florian Fischer
(46)
,
David Friedman
(37)
,
João Furtado
(47)
,
Abhay Motiramji Gaidhane
(48)
,
Shilpa Gaidhane
(48)
,
Gus Gazzard
(49)
,
Berhe Gebremichael
(50)
,
Ronnie George
(51)
,
Ahmad Ghashghaee
(14)
,
Mahaveer Golechha
(52)
,
Samer Hamidi
(53)
,
Billy Randall Hammond
(54)
,
Mary Elizabeth R Hartnett
(55)
,
Risky Kusuma Hartono
(56)
,
Simon Hay
(2)
,
Golnaz Heidari
(57)
,
Hung Chak Ho
(58)
,
Chi Linh Hoang
(59)
,
Mowafa Househ
(59)
,
Segun Emmanuel Ibitoye
(60)
,
Irena Ilic
(61)
,
Milena Ilic
(62)
,
April Ingram
(57)
,
Seyed Sina Naghibi Irvani
(9)
,
Ravi Prakash Jha
(63)
,
Rim Kahloun
(64)
,
Himal Kandel
(65)
,
Ayele Semachew Kasa
(66)
,
John Kempen
(37)
,
Maryam Keramati
(67)
,
Moncef Khairallah
(68)
,
Ejaz Ahmad Khan
(69)
,
Rohit Khanna
(70)
,
Mahalaqua Nazli Khatib
(48)
,
Judy Kim
(71)
,
Yun Jin Kim
(72)
,
Sezer Kisa
(73)
,
Adnan Kisa
(74)
,
Ai Koyanagi
(75)
,
Om Kurmi
(76)
,
van Charles Lansingh
(77)
,
Janet Leasher
(78)
,
Nicolas Leveziel
(79)
,
Hans Limburg
(80)
,
Marek Majdan
(81)
,
Navid Manafi
(82)
,
Kaweh Mansouri
(83)
,
Colm Mcalinden
(84)
,
Seyed Farzad Mohammadi
(85)
,
Abdollah Mohammadian-Hafshejani
(86)
,
Reza Mohammadpourhodki
(67)
,
Ali Mokdad
(87)
,
Delaram Moosavi
(88)
,
Alan Morse
(89)
,
Mehdi Naderi
(90)
,
Kovin Naidoo
(91)
,
Vinay Nangia
(92)
,
Cuong Tat Nguyen
(93)
,
Huong Lan Thi Nguyen
(93)
,
Kolawole Ogundimu
(94)
,
Andrew Olagunju
(76)
,
Samuel Ostroff
(2)
,
Songhomitra Panda-Jonas
(95)
,
Konrad Pesudovs
(96)
,
Tunde Peto
(97)
,
Zahiruddin Quazi Syed
(48)
,
Mohammad Hifz Ur Rahman
(98)
,
Pradeep Ramulu
(99)
,
Salman Rawaf
(100)
,
David Laith Rawaf
,
Nickolas Reinig
,
Alan Robin
,
Luca Rossetti
,
Sare Safi
,
Amirhossein Sahebkar
,
Abdallah Samy
,
Deepak Saxena
,
Janet Serle
,
Masood Ali Shaikh
,
Tueng Shen
,
Kenji Shibuya
,
Jae Il Shin
,
Juan Carlos Silva
,
Alexander Silvester
,
Jasvinder Singh
,
Deepika Singhal
,
Rita Sitorus
,
Eirini Skiadaresi
,
Vegard Skirbekk
,
Amin Soheili
,
Raúl Sousa
,
Emma Elizabeth Spurlock
,
Dwight Stambolian
,
Biruk Wogayehu Taddele
,
Eyayou Girma Tadesse
,
Nina Tahhan
,
Md Ismail Tareque
,
Fotis Topouzis
,
Bach Xuan Tran
,
Ravensara Travillian
,
Miltiadis Tsilimbaris
,
Rohit Varma
,
Gianni Virgili
,
Ya Xing Wang
,
Ningli Wang
,
Sheila West
,
Tien Wong
,
Zoubida Zaidi
,
Kaleab Alemayehu Zewdie
,
Jost Jonas
,
Theo Vos
,
Funding Brien Holden
1
ARU -
Anglia Ruskin University
2 University of Washington [Seattle]
3 Imperial College London
4 University of Melbourne
5 School of Optometry and Vision Science, UNSW Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
6 University of Adelaide
7 Jahrom University
8 UoS - University of Sharjah
9 SBUMS - Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences [Tehran]
10 University of Gondar
11 Debre Markos University
12 The Fred Hollows Foundation
13 Leipzig University / Universität Leipzig
14 Iran University of Medical Sciences
15 Samara University
16 UTH - University of Thessaly [Volos]
17 Visibility Metrics LLC
18 University of Texas
19 University Hospital of Ioannina
20 Sultan Zainal Abidin University
21 UniSR - Universita Vita Salute San Raffaele = Vita-Salute San Raffaele University [Milan, Italie]
22 UK - Univerzita Karlova [Praha, Česká republika] = Charles University [Prague, Czech Republic]
23 Government Medical College Pali
24 All India Institute of Medical Sciences [New Delhi]
25 NIBMG - National Institute of Biomedical Genomics
26 Babol University of Medical Sciences
27 Ufa Eye Research Institute
28 LSHTM - London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
29 CHU Dijon - Centre Hospitalier Universitaire de Dijon - Hôpital François Mitterrand
30 CSGA - Centre des Sciences du Goût et de l'Alimentation [Dijon]
31 UBFC - Université Bourgogne Franche-Comté [COMUE]
32 University of Waterloo [Waterloo]
33 SERI - Singapore Eye Research Institute [Singapore]
34 HNUE - Hanoi National University of Education
35 IRCCS San Raffaele Scientific Institute [Milan, Italie]
36 Universidade do Porto = University of Porto
37 Harvard University
38 University of Michigan [Ann Arbor]
39 UTAR - Universiti Tunku Abdul Rahman
40 UNAM - Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México = National Autonomous University of Mexico
41 MOHME - Ministry of Health and Medical Education [Iran]
42 UAB - University of Alabama at Birmingham [ Birmingham]
43 NIH - National Institutes of Health [Bethesda, MD, USA]
44 Shahroud University of Medical Sciences
45 Unifesp - Federal University of Sao Paulo
46 University of Applied Sciences Ravensburg-Weingarten
47 USP - Universidade de São Paulo = University of São Paulo
48 Datta Meghe Institute of Medical Sciences
49 UCL - University College of London [London]
50 HU - Haramaya University
51 Sankara Nethralaya Medical Research Foundation
52 Indian Institute of Public Health Gandhinagar
53 Hamdan Bin Mohammed Smart University
54 University of Georgia [USA]
55 University of Utah
56 Institution of Public Health Sciences
57 Independent Consultant
58 CUHK - The Chinese University of Hong Kong [Hong Kong]
59 HBKU - Hamad Bin Khalifa University [Doha, Qatar]
60 University of Ibadan
61 University of Belgrade [Belgrade]
62 Faculty of Science of the University of Kragujevac
63 BHU - Banaras Hindu University [Varanasi, India]
64 Ophtalmologistes Associe Monastir
65 The University of Sydney
66 BDU - Bahir Dar University
67 Mashhad University of Medical Sciences
68 Fattouma Bourguiba University Hospital
69 Health Services Academy
70 L V Prasad Eye Institute
71 MCW - Medical College of Wisconsin [Milwaukee]
72 Xiamen University
73 OsloMet - Oslo Metropolitan University
74 Kristiania University College = Høyskolen Kristiania
75 San Juan de Dios Sanitary Park
76 McMaster University [Hamilton, Ontario]
77 HelpMeSee
78 NSU - Nova Southeastern University
79 CHU de Poitiers [La Milétrie] - Centre hospitalier universitaire de Poitiers = Poitiers University Hospital
80 Health Information Services
81 Trnava University
82 University of Manitoba [Winnipeg]
83 Glaucoma Research Center
84 Singleton Hospital
85 TUMS - Tehran University of Medical Sciences
86 Shahrekord University of Medical Sciences
87 Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation [University of Washington]
88 IUMS - Iran University of Medical Sciences [Tehran, Iran]
89 Lighthouse Guild
90 Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences
91 UKZN - University of KwaZulu-Natal [Durban, Afrique du Sud]
92 Suraj Eye Institute
93 DTU - Duy Tan University
94 Sightsavers
95 Heidelberg University Hospital [Heidelberg]
96 UNSW - University of New South Wales [Sydney]
97 QUB - Queen's University [Belfast]
98 MM(DU) - Maharishi Markandeshwar University [Mullana]
99 JHU - Johns Hopkins University
100 Public Health England [London]
2 University of Washington [Seattle]
3 Imperial College London
4 University of Melbourne
5 School of Optometry and Vision Science, UNSW Sydney, Sydney, NSW, Australia
6 University of Adelaide
7 Jahrom University
8 UoS - University of Sharjah
9 SBUMS - Shahid Beheshti University of Medical Sciences [Tehran]
10 University of Gondar
11 Debre Markos University
12 The Fred Hollows Foundation
13 Leipzig University / Universität Leipzig
14 Iran University of Medical Sciences
15 Samara University
16 UTH - University of Thessaly [Volos]
17 Visibility Metrics LLC
18 University of Texas
19 University Hospital of Ioannina
20 Sultan Zainal Abidin University
21 UniSR - Universita Vita Salute San Raffaele = Vita-Salute San Raffaele University [Milan, Italie]
22 UK - Univerzita Karlova [Praha, Česká republika] = Charles University [Prague, Czech Republic]
23 Government Medical College Pali
24 All India Institute of Medical Sciences [New Delhi]
25 NIBMG - National Institute of Biomedical Genomics
26 Babol University of Medical Sciences
27 Ufa Eye Research Institute
28 LSHTM - London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
29 CHU Dijon - Centre Hospitalier Universitaire de Dijon - Hôpital François Mitterrand
30 CSGA - Centre des Sciences du Goût et de l'Alimentation [Dijon]
31 UBFC - Université Bourgogne Franche-Comté [COMUE]
32 University of Waterloo [Waterloo]
33 SERI - Singapore Eye Research Institute [Singapore]
34 HNUE - Hanoi National University of Education
35 IRCCS San Raffaele Scientific Institute [Milan, Italie]
36 Universidade do Porto = University of Porto
37 Harvard University
38 University of Michigan [Ann Arbor]
39 UTAR - Universiti Tunku Abdul Rahman
40 UNAM - Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México = National Autonomous University of Mexico
41 MOHME - Ministry of Health and Medical Education [Iran]
42 UAB - University of Alabama at Birmingham [ Birmingham]
43 NIH - National Institutes of Health [Bethesda, MD, USA]
44 Shahroud University of Medical Sciences
45 Unifesp - Federal University of Sao Paulo
46 University of Applied Sciences Ravensburg-Weingarten
47 USP - Universidade de São Paulo = University of São Paulo
48 Datta Meghe Institute of Medical Sciences
49 UCL - University College of London [London]
50 HU - Haramaya University
51 Sankara Nethralaya Medical Research Foundation
52 Indian Institute of Public Health Gandhinagar
53 Hamdan Bin Mohammed Smart University
54 University of Georgia [USA]
55 University of Utah
56 Institution of Public Health Sciences
57 Independent Consultant
58 CUHK - The Chinese University of Hong Kong [Hong Kong]
59 HBKU - Hamad Bin Khalifa University [Doha, Qatar]
60 University of Ibadan
61 University of Belgrade [Belgrade]
62 Faculty of Science of the University of Kragujevac
63 BHU - Banaras Hindu University [Varanasi, India]
64 Ophtalmologistes Associe Monastir
65 The University of Sydney
66 BDU - Bahir Dar University
67 Mashhad University of Medical Sciences
68 Fattouma Bourguiba University Hospital
69 Health Services Academy
70 L V Prasad Eye Institute
71 MCW - Medical College of Wisconsin [Milwaukee]
72 Xiamen University
73 OsloMet - Oslo Metropolitan University
74 Kristiania University College = Høyskolen Kristiania
75 San Juan de Dios Sanitary Park
76 McMaster University [Hamilton, Ontario]
77 HelpMeSee
78 NSU - Nova Southeastern University
79 CHU de Poitiers [La Milétrie] - Centre hospitalier universitaire de Poitiers = Poitiers University Hospital
80 Health Information Services
81 Trnava University
82 University of Manitoba [Winnipeg]
83 Glaucoma Research Center
84 Singleton Hospital
85 TUMS - Tehran University of Medical Sciences
86 Shahrekord University of Medical Sciences
87 Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation [University of Washington]
88 IUMS - Iran University of Medical Sciences [Tehran, Iran]
89 Lighthouse Guild
90 Kermanshah University of Medical Sciences
91 UKZN - University of KwaZulu-Natal [Durban, Afrique du Sud]
92 Suraj Eye Institute
93 DTU - Duy Tan University
94 Sightsavers
95 Heidelberg University Hospital [Heidelberg]
96 UNSW - University of New South Wales [Sydney]
97 QUB - Queen's University [Belfast]
98 MM(DU) - Maharishi Markandeshwar University [Mullana]
99 JHU - Johns Hopkins University
100 Public Health England [London]
Alain Bron
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 1364478
- IdHAL : alain-bron
Maria Vittoria Cicinelli
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 800933
- ORCID : 0000-0003-2938-0409
Ai Koyanagi
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 801213
- ORCID : 0000-0002-9565-5004
David Laith Rawaf
- Fonction : Auteur
Nickolas Reinig
- Fonction : Auteur
Alan Robin
- Fonction : Auteur
Luca Rossetti
- Fonction : Auteur
Sare Safi
- Fonction : Auteur
Amirhossein Sahebkar
- Fonction : Auteur
Abdallah Samy
- Fonction : Auteur
Deepak Saxena
- Fonction : Auteur
Janet Serle
- Fonction : Auteur
Masood Ali Shaikh
- Fonction : Auteur
Tueng Shen
- Fonction : Auteur
Kenji Shibuya
- Fonction : Auteur
Jae Il Shin
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 799657
- ORCID : 0000-0003-2326-1820
Juan Carlos Silva
- Fonction : Auteur
Alexander Silvester
- Fonction : Auteur
Jasvinder Singh
- Fonction : Auteur
Deepika Singhal
- Fonction : Auteur
Rita Sitorus
- Fonction : Auteur
Eirini Skiadaresi
- Fonction : Auteur
Vegard Skirbekk
- Fonction : Auteur
Amin Soheili
- Fonction : Auteur
Raúl Sousa
- Fonction : Auteur
Emma Elizabeth Spurlock
- Fonction : Auteur
Dwight Stambolian
- Fonction : Auteur
Biruk Wogayehu Taddele
- Fonction : Auteur
Eyayou Girma Tadesse
- Fonction : Auteur
Nina Tahhan
- Fonction : Auteur
Md Ismail Tareque
- Fonction : Auteur
Fotis Topouzis
- Fonction : Auteur
Bach Xuan Tran
- Fonction : Auteur
Ravensara Travillian
- Fonction : Auteur
Miltiadis Tsilimbaris
- Fonction : Auteur
Rohit Varma
- Fonction : Auteur
Gianni Virgili
- Fonction : Auteur
- PersonId : 762779
- ORCID : 0000-0002-9960-2989
Ya Xing Wang
- Fonction : Auteur
Ningli Wang
- Fonction : Auteur
Sheila West
- Fonction : Auteur
Tien Wong
- Fonction : Auteur
Zoubida Zaidi
- Fonction : Auteur
Kaleab Alemayehu Zewdie
- Fonction : Auteur
Jost Jonas
- Fonction : Auteur
Theo Vos
- Fonction : Auteur
Funding Brien Holden
- Fonction : Auteur
Résumé
Background To contribute to the WHO initiative, VISION 2020: The Right to Sight, an assessment of global vision impairment in 2020 and temporal change is needed. We aimed to extensively update estimates of global vision loss burden, presenting estimates for 2020, temporal change over three decades between 1990-2020, and forecasts for 2050. Methods We did a systematic review and meta-analysis of population-based surveys of eye disease from January, 1980, to October, 2018. Only studies with samples representative of the population and with dearly defined visual acuity testing protocols were included. We fitted hierarchical models to estimate 2020 prevalence (with 95% uncertainty intervals [UN]) of mild vision impairment (presenting visual acuity >= 6/18 and <6/12), moderate and severe vision impairment (<6/18 to 3/60), and blindness (<3/60 or less than 10 degrees visual field around central fixation); and vision impairment from uncorrected presbyopia (presenting near vision= 6/12). We forecast estimates of vision loss up to 2050. Findings In 2020, an estimated 43.3 million (95% UI 37.6-48.4) people were blind, of whom 23.9 million (55%; 20.8-26.8) were estimated to be female. We estimated 295 million (267-325) people to have moderate and severe vision impairment, of whom 163 million (55%; 147-179) were female; 258 million (233-285) to have mild vision impairment, of whom 142 million (55%; 128-157) were female; and 510 million (371-667) to have visual impairment from uncorrected presbyopia, of whom 280 million (55%; 205-365) were female. Globally, between 1990 and 2020, among adults aged 50 years or older, age-standardised prevalence of blindness decreased by 28.5% (-29.4 to -27.7) and prevalence of mild vision impairment decreased slightly (-0.3%, -0.8 to -0.2), whereas prevalence of moderate and severe vision impainnent increased slightly (2.5%, 1.9 to 3.2; insufficient data were available to calculate this statistic for vision impairment from uncorrected presbyopia). In this period, the number of people who were blind increased by 50.6% (47.8 to 53.4) and the number with moderate and severe vision impairment increased by 91.7% (87.6 to 95.8). By 2050, we predict 61.0 million (52.9 to 69.3) people will be blind, 474 million (428 to 518) will have moderate and severe vision impairment, 360 million (322 to 400) will have mild vision impairment, and 866 million (629 to 1150) will have uncorrected presbyopia. Interpretation Age-adjusted prevalence of blindness has reduced over the past three decades, yet due to population growth, progress is not keeping pace with needs. We face enormous challenges in avoiding vision impairment as the global population grows and ages.
Domaines
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