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Article Dans Une Revue Ecological Informatics Année : 2022

Calibration of a complex hydro-ecological model through Approximate Bayesian Computation and Random Forest combined with sensitivity analysis

Résumé

An automated calibration method is proposed and applied to the complex hydro-ecological model Delft3D-BLOOM which is calibrated from monitoring data of the lake Champs-sur-Marne, a small shallow urban lake in the Paris region (France). This method (ABC-RF-SA) combines Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) with the machine learning algorithm Random Forest (RF) and a Sensitivity Analysis (SA) of the model parameters. Three target variables are used (total chlorophyll, cyanobacteria and dissolved oxygen concentration) to cali-brate 133 parameters. ABC-RF-SA is first applied on a set of simulated observations to validate the methodology. It is then applied on a real set of high-frequency observations recorded during about two weeks on the lake Champs-sur-Marne. The methodology is also compared to standard ABC and ABC-RF formulations. Only ABC-RF-SA allowed the model to reproduce the observed biogeochemical dynamics. The coupling of ABC with RF and SA thus appears crucial for its application to complex hydro-ecological models.
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Dates et versions

hal-03819623 , version 1 (07-09-2023)

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Francesco Piccioni, Céline Casenave, Meïli Baragatti, Bertrand Cloez, Vinçon-Leite Brigitte. Calibration of a complex hydro-ecological model through Approximate Bayesian Computation and Random Forest combined with sensitivity analysis. Ecological Informatics, 2022, 71, 23p. ⟨10.1016/j.ecoinf.2022.101764⟩. ⟨hal-03819623⟩
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