Uncertainty propagation in a modelling chain of climate change impact for a representative French drainage site
Résumé
Analysis of the uncertainty propagation along a hydroclimatic modelling chain was performed only by few studies to date on subsurface drainage hydrology. We performed such an analysis in a representative French drainage site. A set of 30 climate projections provided future climatic conditions for three representative concentration pathways (RCPs): RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5. Three hydrological models for drainage systems (MACRO, DRAINMOD, and SIDRA-RU) on three different parameter sets were used to quantify uncertainties from hydrological components. Results showed that the RCP contribution to total uncertainty reaches almost 40 % for air temperature, does not exceed 15 % for precipitation, and is almost negligible for hydrological indicators (HIs). The main source of uncertainty comes from the climate models, representing 50 %-90 % of the total uncertainty. The contribution of the hydrological components (models and parameter sets) to the HI uncertainty is almost negligible too, not exceeding 5 %.
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