Article Dans Une Revue Diversity and Distributions Année : 2025

Vulnerability to Climate Changes of Tropical Forests Across Africa

Résumé

Aim: Global climate projections identify tropical regions as hotspots of climate change during the 21st century. The few ground data in tropical Africa confirm significant warming and drying over the last decades, but how plant communities will tolerate these new climate conditions remains vastly uncertain. In this study, we assess the climatic vulnerability of tropical moist forests across Africa. Location: Tropical Africa. Methods: We mapped climate change exposure across the tropical moist forest biome, focusing on mean annual temperature (MAT), mean annual precipitation (MAP) and climatological water deficit (CWD) using climate projections for 2085 from five regional models under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Using occurrence records for 3,536 tree and shrub species, we estimated species' climatic limits and safety margins, then averaged these margins at the community level. Finally, we combined exposure and safety margins to assess species-and community-level risk by 2085. Results: Under RCP4.5, corresponding to an average warming of 2.4°C by 2085, 92% of species (3,256) could be at risk in at least one community where they occur. This rate increases to 96% (3,405 species) under RCP8.5, with an average warming of 4.3°C. In all scenarios, the most at-risk communities are concentrated in low-elevation regions, where species have few opportunities to migrate if their climatic limits are exceeded. The high risk across the forest biome results from the combination of significant and widespread temperature increases and the relatively narrow safety margins of the species. Specifically, 50% of species have an average safety margin below 1.6°C above baseline temperatures, suggesting they are already near their observed climatic limits. Main Conclusions: Beyond refining our understanding of the vulnerability of tropical moist forests across Africa, our results have far-reaching implications for conservation, allowing us to target species and communities of interest for further monitoring and conservation efforts.

| Introduction

Tropical forests store more than 200 Pg C in aboveground live biomass (Baccini et al. 2012; Li et al. 2022), contribute over 32% of global primary productivity and exert a significant influence on the hydrological cycle (Beer et al. 2010). Furthermore, they harbour more than half of the described species (Pillay et al. 2022), and provide essential resources to around 1.5 billion

Fichier principal
Vignette du fichier
Madingou_etal_Diversity_and_Distributions_2025_31_10.pdf (1.26 Mo) Télécharger le fichier
Origine Fichiers produits par l'(les) auteur(s)
Licence
DOI

Cite 10.5061/dryad.7h44j105d Jeu de données Madingou, M. P. N., Dauby, G., Fayolle, A., & Gorel, A.-P. (2025). Vulnerability to climate changes of tropical forests across Africa (Version 14) [Data set]. Dryad. https://doi.org/10.5061/DRYAD.7H44J105D

Dates et versions

hal-05362401 , version 1 (13-11-2025)

Licence

Identifiants

Citer

Mady Parfait Noé Madingou, Gilles Dauby, Adeline Fayolle, Anaïs‐pasiphaé Gorel. Vulnerability to Climate Changes of Tropical Forests Across Africa. Diversity and Distributions, 2025, 31 (10), pp.e70104. ⟨10.1111/ddi.70104⟩. ⟨hal-05362401⟩
60 Consultations
85 Téléchargements

Altmetric

Partager

  • More