Temporal dynamics and climatic indices related to long-term historical annual pressures of key grapevine diseases: case study of Black Rot and Downy Mildew in Bordeaux vineyards
Résumé
Based on a textual analysis of agricultural warning service reports and bulletins from 1941 onwards, we designed a new integrative semi-quantitative score for characterizing the annual disease occurrence and overall damage in French winegrowing regions (Fermaud et al, 2024, IOBC-WPRS Bulletin 171). In the Bordeaux region, our aim was to reconstruct, analyze and compare the grapevine past exposure to two major harmful diseases, i.e. Black rot “BR” (Guignardia bidwellii) and downy mildew “DM” (Plasmopara viticola). For the first one, we designed original overall annual climatic indices, calculated specifically, for testing that the BR pathological scores over a long-term period may be explainable - at least partly - by specific seasonal weather features. For the latter, in the past 84 years, the historical time distribution data were finely analyzed on a per-decade basis (decennial-risk period). As a clear and marked trend, we found that Bordeaux vineyards were exposed to an increasing pattern of the DM overall-intensity. Lastly, occurrence of potential inter-relationships have also been tested between the time-series distributions of the two pathogens. By reconstructing the disease annual occurrences and overall severities that affected grapevines over time, we will able to discuss more in deep the epidemiological status of the different past vintages and analyze long-term trends versus more isolated pathological phenomena. As a current prospect, in addition to the development of bio-climatic indices for the different diseases - other than BR presented here - the improved knowledge of the decennial-risk levels is of prime importance from an insurance point of view for contributing to a decrease in pesticide use (UMT-SEVEN project under way). Finally, a collaboration is also in progress with historian scientists of Montaigne Univ. Bordeaux, in order to gain a better understanding of how diseases expressed over a long-term period in relation to the socio-economic and technical contexts (e.g. advances in viticultural and/or phytosanitary techniques…).
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