The SPDE approach for spatio-temporal datasets with advection and diffusion
Résumé
In the task of predicting spatio-temporal fields in environmental science using statistical
methods, introducing statistical models inspired by the physics of the underlying phenomena
that are numerically efficient is of growing interest. Large space–time datasets call for new
numerical methods to efficiently process them. The Stochastic Partial Differential Equation
(SPDE) approach has proven to be effective for the estimation and the prediction in a spatial
context. We present here the advection–diffusion SPDE with first–order derivative in time which
defines a large class of nonseparable spatio-temporal models. A Gaussian Markov random field
approximation of the solution to the SPDE is built by discretizing the temporal derivative with
a finite difference method (implicit Euler) and by solving the spatial SPDE with a finite element
method (continuous Galerkin) at each time step. The ‘‘Streamline Diffusion’’ stabilization
technique is introduced when the advection term dominates the diffusion. Computationally
efficient methods are proposed to estimate the parameters of the SPDE and to predict the spatio-
temporal field by kriging, as well as to perform conditional simulations. The approach is applied
to a solar radiation dataset. Its advantages and limitations are discussed
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