In order to mitigate climate change, France committed during the COP21 to reduce its emission by 12% between 2013 and 2028. Would the cattle production sector meet this objective? Four contrasted scenarios have been developed at national level in order to explore possible futures: S1 ‘trend’, S2 ‘milk production increases to answer the global demand’, S3 ‘local oriented, environmentally friendly production’, S4 ‘tough policy to reduce GHG emissions’. The bioeconomic model Orfee has been created and used to assess the impacts of the main drivers of these scenarios on the evolution of typical beef and dairy farms. For all scenarios we assume that some technological progresses would be available (increase in milk yield up to 25%, younger age at first calving, silage of cereal-protein crops, alfalfa, higher efficiency of fertilizers, organic to intensive production), but not necessary chosen by the model optimization. Two levels of prices are tested for milk and meat (favorable or not). In addition, labour productivity is doubled in S2 to account for the assumed high level of technology available on farms; in S3, organic farming with low level of concentrate feeds is imposed; in S4 a tax on carbon emission is introduced. The typical farms simulated encompass four beef cattle farms ranging from a farm specialized in suckler cow production based on permanent grasslands in mountainous areas to a cash crop farms with a male fattening unit. The four dairy farms have contrasting soil potential, forage systems and milk yield. We show that dairy cows in plain areas with cash crops and forage crops are the most sensitive to changes between scenarios since they could intensify their production more easily or quit dairy production to produce cash crops only. Technological progresses enable to increase production profit and to reduce GHG emission. Scenario S2 is the most favorable to production and income but emits more GHG. Scenario S3 induces a reduction of profit and has contrasted effects on GHG emissions. Cattle production is highly impacted by carbon taxes.